Inferences about the transmission of Schmallenberg virus within and between farms.
Inferences about the transmission of Schmallenberg virus within and between farms.
复制标题
关于施马伦贝格病毒在农场内部和农场之间传播的推论。
DOI：
10.1016/j.prevetmed.2014.04.011
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发表时间：
2014-10-15
影响因子：
2.6
通讯作者：
Wilson AJ
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gubbins S;Turner J;Baylis M;van der Stede Y;van Schaik G;Abrahantes JC;Wilson AJ
2011年夏天，德国和荷兰出现了施马伦贝格病毒(SBV)，这是一种库蚊传播的正型病毒，随后在欧洲大部分地区蔓延。为了推断SBV的传播，我们开发了两个模型来描述它在农场内和农场之间的传播。将农场内模型与比利时和荷兰的牛羊养殖场的血清流行率数据进行了拟合，并使用近似贝叶斯计算估计了参数。尽管牛和羊的病毒血症持续时间很短(平均3-4天)，但农场内的血清阳性率可以达到很高的水平(平均群内血清阳性率和80%)，这主要是因为从宿主传播到媒介的可能性很高(14%)，而且SBV能够在相对较低的温度下快速复制(每天0.03度)和相对较低的温度(复制阈值：12.3°C)。然后在单独的农场间模型中使用来自农场内部模型的参数估计来模拟SBV的区域传播。这表明，SBV在区域一级的快速传播主要是由宿主向媒介传播的高概率以及病毒复制的温度要求造成的。我们在英国一个地区的动物活动的典型年份获得的结果表明，没有必要援引额外的传播机制来解释观察到的SBV在欧洲迅速传播的模式。此外，实施行动限制，甚至完全禁止行动，对这种规模的SBV传播几乎没有影响。
In the summer of 2011 Schmallenberg virus (SBV), a Culicoides-borne orthobunyavirus, emerged in Germany and The Netherlands and subsequently spread across much of Europe. To draw inferences about the transmission of SBV we have developed two models to describe its spread within and between farms. The within-farm model was fitted to seroprevalence data for cattle and sheep farms in Belgium and The Netherlands, with parameters estimated using approximate Bayesian computation. Despite the short duration of viraemia in cattle and sheep (mean of 3–4 days) the within-farm seroprevalence can reach high levels (mean within-herd seroprevalence >80%), largely because the probability of transmission from host to vector is high (14%) and SBV is able to replicate quickly (0.03 per day-degree) and at relatively low temperatures (threshold for replication: 12.3 °C). Parameter estimates from the within-farm model were then used in a separate between-farm model to simulate the regional spread of SBV. This showed that the rapid spread of SBV at a regional level is primarily a consequence of the high probability of transmission from host to vector and the temperature requirements for virus replication. Our results, obtained for a region of the UK in a typical year with regard to animal movements, indicate that there is no need to invoke additional transmission mechanisms to explain the observed patterns of rapid spread of SBV in Europe. Moreover, the imposition of movement restrictions, even a total movement ban, has little effect on the spread of SBV at this scale.
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影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Elbers AR;Meiswinkel R;van Weezep E;Sloet van Oldruitenborgh-Oosterbaan MM;Kooi EA
通讯作者：
Kooi EA
DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2013.0194
发表时间：
2013-06-06
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lo Iacono G;Robin CA;Newton JR;Gubbins S;Wood JL
通讯作者：
Wood JL
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Gerry, AC;Mullens, BA
通讯作者：
Mullens, BA
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Carpenter, S.;McArthur, C.;Mellor, P. S.
通讯作者：
Mellor, P. S.
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Gubbins, S.;Hartemink, N. A.;Klinkenberg, D.
通讯作者：
Klinkenberg, D.