Where are the horses? With the sheep or cows? Uncertain host location, vector-feeding preferences and the risk of African horse sickness transmission in Great Britain.
Where are the horses? With the sheep or cows? Uncertain host location, vector-feeding preferences and the risk of African horse sickness transmission in Great Britain.
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DOI：
10.1098/rsif.2013.0194
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发表时间：
2013-06-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Wood JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lo Iacono G;Robin CA;Newton JR;Gubbins S;Wood JL
了解非易感宿主对病媒传播疾病的影响是一个重要的流行病学问题。然而，由于东道方的位置不确定，对其影响的调查可能会变得复杂。估计非洲马瘟（AHS）在英国（GB）的传播风险，这是一种由库蠓传播的病毒，提供了一个有见地的例子，因为：（i）风险模式预期会受到不敏感脊椎动物宿主的影响（牛和羊）和（ii）关于马的空间分布的信息是不完整的，因为GB国家马数据库记录的是马的主人，而不是马的位置。在这里，我们结合联合收割机土地利用数据与现有的马所有者分布，并使用贝叶斯方法，推断出一个现实的分布的位置马。我们估计的风险爆发AHS在GB中，使用的基本繁殖数（R0），并证明映射所有者地址作为代理马的位置显着低估了风险。我们澄清了非易感脊椎动物宿主的作用表明，在许多主机（易感和非易感）的存在下，疾病的风险，最终可以减少到两个基本因素：第一，丰富的载体，这取决于主机密度，第二，动物物种之间的差异喂养偏好的载体。
Understanding the influence of non-susceptible hosts on vector-borne disease transmission is an important epidemiological problem. However, investigation of its impact can be complicated by uncertainty in the location of the hosts. Estimating the risk of transmission of African horse sickness (AHS) in Great Britain (GB), a virus transmitted by Culicoides biting midges, provides an insightful example because: (i) the patterns of risk are expected to be influenced by the presence of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts (cattle and sheep) and (ii) incomplete information on the spatial distribution of horses is available because the GB National Equine Database records owner, rather than horse, locations. Here, we combine land-use data with available horse owner distributions and, using a Bayesian approach, infer a realistic distribution for the location of horses. We estimate the risk of an outbreak of AHS in GB, using the basic reproduction number (R0), and demonstrate that mapping owner addresses as a proxy for horse location significantly underestimates the risk. We clarify the role of non-susceptible vertebrate hosts by showing that the risk of disease in the presence of many hosts (susceptible and non-susceptible) can be ultimately reduced to two fundamental factors: first, the abundance of vectors and how this depends on host density, and, second, the differential feeding preference of vectors among animal species.
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DOI：
10.1126/science.1210554
发表时间：
2011-12-09
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
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发表时间：
2008-03-06
期刊：
Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
影响因子：
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