Mismatch between birth date and vegetation phenology slows the demography of roe deer.
Mismatch between birth date and vegetation phenology slows the demography of roe deer.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pbio.1001828
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发表时间：
2014-04
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Bonenfant C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Plard F;Gaillard JM;Coulson T;Hewison AJ;Delorme D;Warnant C;Bonenfant C
这项对法国鹿种群的研究揭示了与食草动物未能改变其生命周期时间以应对全球变暖相关的人口成本。气候变化对生物多样性的显著影响经常得到证明，包括与温度有关的物候和生活史特征的变化。气候变化的一个潜在的主要影响是改变不同营养水平的物候之间的同步性。在产卵日期的高表型可塑性，使许多鸟类物种跟踪越来越早的春天，由于最近的环境变化，但尽管在鸟类繁殖时间的变化已经得到了很好的研究，这些问题只是最近才被解决的哺乳动物。为了跟踪峰值资源的可用性，在欧洲广泛分布的大型食草动物，如梅花鹿，也应该修改它们的生活史时间表，以应对随着时间的推移植被物候的变化。在这项研究中，我们分析了气候变化对梅花鹿出生时间的影响，以及对种群人口统计学和个体适应度的影响。我们的研究提供了一个罕见的量化的人口成本与一个物种的失败，以修改其物候，以应对不断变化的世界。考虑到这些健身成本，缺乏响应的梅花鹿出生日期，以配合越来越早的春天的到来是在鲜明的对比，在许多其他哺乳动物报告的气候变化的显着表型反应。我们认为，缺乏表型可塑性的出生时间在梅花鹿是与其无法跟踪环境线索的变化，资源的可用性，分娩的时间。气候变化可以改变食物链上不同点的生物之间生命周期的同步性。如果物种不对气候变化作出反应，资源可用性峰值的时间可能无法与能量消耗峰值的时间相匹配。许多鸟类已经能够提前它们的产卵日期，以配合毛虫数量的变化。食草动物同样会跟踪植被生长时间的变化。在这项研究中，我们将联合收割机统计分析与人口模型相结合，分析气候驱动的春季植被更新时间变化对梅花鹿出生日期和人口统计的影响。近年来，气候变化导致当地气温显著上升，植被逐渐提前。尽管发生了这些变化，但在27年的研究期间，我们没有观察到梅花鹿出生日期的时间发生变化。这种未能跟踪环境变化导致了植被冲刷和出生日期之间的不匹配，这反过来又导致了年轻人的生存率下降，从而减少了梅花鹿的健康状况。出生日期受到强烈的定向选择，但不具有强烈的遗传性，表明出生日期对气候变化的进化反应可能是有限的。我们认为，塑料的反应，出生日期没有发生，因为繁殖是由一天的长度，而不是资源的可利用性在狍。
This study of a French deer population reveals the demographic costs associated with the failure of a herbivore to modify its life cycle timing to respond to a warming world. Marked impacts of climate change on biodiversity have frequently been demonstrated, including temperature-related shifts in phenology and life-history traits. One potential major impact of climate change is the modification of synchronization between the phenology of different trophic levels. High phenotypic plasticity in laying date has allowed many bird species to track the increasingly early springs resulting from recent environmental change, but although changes in the timing of reproduction have been well studied in birds, these questions have only recently been addressed in mammals. To track peak resource availability, large herbivores like roe deer, with a widespread distribution across Europe, should also modify their life-history schedule in response to changes in vegetation phenology over time. In this study, we analysed the influence of climate change on the timing of roe deer births and the consequences for population demography and individual fitness. Our study provides a rare quantification of the demographic costs associated with the failure of a species to modify its phenology in response to a changing world. Given these fitness costs, the lack of response of roe deer birth dates to match the increasingly earlier onset of spring is in stark contrast with the marked phenotypic responses to climate change reported in many other mammals. We suggest that the lack of phenotypic plasticity in birth timing in roe deer is linked to its inability to track environmental cues of variation in resource availability for the timing of parturition. Climate change can alter the synchronization of life cycles between organisms at different points in the food chain. If species do not respond to climate change, the timing of peak resource availability may fail to match the timing of peak energy expenditure. Many bird species have been able to advance their laying date to match a change in the timing of caterpillar abundance. Herbivores are similarly expected to track changes in the timing of vegetation growth. In this study, we combine statistical analysis with demographic modeling to analyze the influence of a climate-driven shift in the timing of the spring vegetation flush on the birth date and demography of roe deer. In recent years, climate change has generated a marked increase in local temperatures and a progressively earlier vegetation flush. Despite these changes, we observed no shift in timing of the birth date of roe deer over the 27-year study period. This failure to track environmental change resulted in a mismatch between vegetation flush and birth date, which in turn caused a decrease in survival of the young, and hence a reduction in roe deer fitness. Birth date was under strong directional selection, but was not strongly heritable, suggesting that any evolutionary response of birth date to climate change might be limited. We suggest that a plastic response in birth date did not occur because reproduction is triggered by day length rather than resource availability in roe deer.
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