Breast cancer incidence and mortality in women in China: temporal trends and projections to 2030.
Breast cancer incidence and mortality in women in China: temporal trends and projections to 2030.
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DOI：
10.20892/j.issn.2095-3941.2020.0523
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发表时间：
2021-05-18
影响因子：
5.5
通讯作者：
He J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lei S;Zheng R;Zhang S;Chen R;Wang S;Sun K;Zeng H;Wei W;He J
2015年，乳腺癌是中国女性最常见的癌症，也是导致癌症死亡的第五大原因。对乳腺癌长期发病率和死亡率趋势的评估以及对未来负担的预测可为制定预防和控制战略提供有价值的信息。2015年中国乳腺癌的负担是通过使用国家癌症中心登记中心的368个癌症登记中心的合格数据估计的。22个癌症登记处的发病病例和死亡病例被用来评估2000年至2015年的时间趋势。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型来预测2030年的乳腺癌负担。2015年，中国约有303，600例乳腺癌新发病例（205，100例来自城市地区，98，500例来自农村地区）和70，400例乳腺癌死亡病例（45，100例来自城市地区，24，500例来自农村地区）。中国城市地区的发病率和死亡率最高。乳腺癌最常见的组织学亚型是浸润性导管癌，其次是浸润性小叶癌。在2000-2015年期间，年龄标准化发病率和死亡率每年增加3.3%和1.0%，预计到2030年将增加11%以上。2015年至2030年期间，风险和人口因素的变化预计将分别增加约13.3%和22.9%，而死亡预计将分别增加13.1%和40.9%。我国乳腺癌的发病率和死亡率持续上升。没有迹象表明这一趋势将在2030年停止，特别是在农村地区。因此，中国迫切需要有效的乳腺癌预防策略。
Breast cancer was the most common cancer and the fifth cause of cancer deaths among women in China in 2015. The evaluation of the long-term incidence and mortality trends and the prediction of the future burden of breast cancer could provide valuable information for developing prevention and control strategies. The burden of breast cancer in China in 2015 was estimated by using qualified data from 368 cancer registries from the National Central Cancer Registry. Incident cases and deaths in 22 cancer registries were used to assess the time trends from 2000 to 2015. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the burden of breast cancer to 2030. Approximately 303,600 new cases of breast cancer (205,100 from urban areas and 98,500 from rural areas) and 70,400 breast cancer deaths (45,100 from urban areas and 24,500 from rural areas) occurred in China in 2015. Urban regions of China had the highest incidence and mortality rates. The most common histological subtype of breast cancer was invasive ductal carcinoma, followed by invasive lobular carcinoma. The age-standardized incidence and mortality rates increased by 3.3% and 1.0% per year during 2000–2015, and were projected to increase by more than 11% until 2030. Changes in risk and demographic factors between 2015 and 2030 in cases are predicted to increase by approximately 13.3% and 22.9%, whereas deaths are predicted to increase by 13.1% and 40.9%, respectively. The incidence and mortality of breast cancer continue to increase in China. There are no signs that this trend will stop by 2030, particularly in rural areas. Effective breast cancer prevention strategies are therefore urgently needed in China.
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女性乳腺癌发病率和死亡率的全球模式不断变化。
影响因子：
7.4
作者：
Bray, F;McCarron, P;Parkin, DM
通讯作者：
Parkin, DM
影响因子：
254.7
作者：
DeSantis, Carol E.;Fedewa, Stacey A.;Jemal, Ahmedin
通讯作者：
Jemal, Ahmedin
DOI：
10.4103/1319-3767.43275
发表时间：
2008-10-01
期刊：
Saudi journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Saudi Gastroenterology Association
影响因子：
--
作者：
Ibrahim, Ezzeldin M;Zeeneldin, Ahmed A;Bin Sadiq, Bakr M
通讯作者：
Bin Sadiq, Bakr M
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Lagace, Francois;Ghazawi, Feras M.;Litvinov, Ivan V.
通讯作者：
Litvinov, Ivan V.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Fan, Lei;Zheng, Ying;Shao, Zhi-Ming
通讯作者：
Shao, Zhi-Ming