A System Dynamics Model for Assessing the Efficacy of Lethal Control for Sustainable Management of Ochotona curzoniae on Tibetan Plateau
A System Dynamics Model for Assessing the Efficacy of Lethal Control for Sustainable Management of Ochotona curzoniae on Tibetan Plateau
复制标题
评估青藏高原鼠兔可持续管理致死控制效果的系统动力学模型
DOI：
10.3390/su13020543
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发表时间：
2021-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Yikang Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jiapeng Qu;Zhenggang Guo;Huakun Zhou;Zelin Liu;Yikang Li
当种群丰度超过经济或生态阈值时，动物总是被视为有害生物，因此需要有效和可持续的管理策略。高原鼠兔是广泛分布于青藏高原的一种原生动物，当其数量过多时，会被认为是一种有害生物。几十年来，当地政府和牧羊人都使用有毒诱饵来控制高原鼠兔。然而，鼠兔种群在致死控制后如何波动还远未确定。在前人研究的基础上，获得了高原鼠兔的种群统计学参数。建立了一个系统动力学模型来描述该物种的种群模型。该模型包括两个年龄组（少年和成年）的两性，并使用密度依赖的因素，包括繁殖，死亡率和迁移。该模型最初用于分析鼠兔管理对种群动态和由此产生的丰度的影响，以规划最佳的害虫控制策略。结果表明，一年一次或间隔2年两次的致死防治效果较好。为了可持续地控制害虫的数量，应考虑采取综合性的策略。一个合适的种群模型可以用来探索最优策略，为害虫管理决策提供重要参考。
When population abundances exceed the economical or ecological threshold, animals are always regarded as pests, so effective and sustainable management strategies are required. As a native species widely distributed on Tibetan Plateau, plateau pika is regarded as a pest when its abundance is too high. For decades, plateau pika were controlled using toxic baits by both the local government and shepherds. However, how pika population fluctuates after lethal control is far from certain. Based on our previous studies, demographic parameters of plateau pika were acquired. A system dynamics model is developed to parameterize a population model for this species. The model incorporates two age categories (juvenile and adult) of both sexes, and uses density-dependent factors, including reproduction, mortality, and migration. The model is used originally to analyze the effect of pika management on the population dynamics and resulting abundance, in order to plan optimal pest controlling strategies. The results show that lethal control is efficient when continuously conducted once each year, or twice with 2-year intervals. For sustainable controlling pest abundance, comprehensive strategies should be considered. An appropriate population model could be used to explore the optimal strategies and provide important reference into decision making about pest management.
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DOI：
10.1002/jwmg.52
发表时间：
2011-04
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
Stephen J. Demaso;W. Grant;F. Hernández;L. Brennan;N. Silvy;X. Wu;F. Bryant
通讯作者：
Stephen J. Demaso;W. Grant;F. Hernández;L. Brennan;N. Silvy;X. Wu;F. Bryant
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
N. Stenseth;H. Leirs;S. Mercelis;P. Mwanjabe
通讯作者：
N. Stenseth;H. Leirs;S. Mercelis;P. Mwanjabe
影响因子：
2
作者：
Jiapeng Qu;Ming Liu;Min Yang;Yanming Zhang;W. Ji
通讯作者：
Jiapeng Qu;Ming Liu;Min Yang;Yanming Zhang;W. Ji
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
J. Russell;H. Jones;D. Armstrong;F. Courchamp;Peter J. Kappes;P. Seddon;S. Oppel;M. Rauzon;P. Cowan;G. Rocamora;P. Genovesi;E. Bonnaud;B. Keitt;N. Holmes;B. Tershy
通讯作者：
J. Russell;H. Jones;D. Armstrong;F. Courchamp;Peter J. Kappes;P. Seddon;S. Oppel;M. Rauzon;P. Cowan;G. Rocamora;P. Genovesi;E. Bonnaud;B. Keitt;N. Holmes;B. Tershy
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
Redlich, Sarah;Martin, Emily A.;Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf
通讯作者：
Steffan-Dewenter, Ingolf