The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.
The effect of temperature on Anopheles mosquito population dynamics and the potential for malaria transmission.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0079276
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Bjørnstad ON
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Beck-Johnson LM;Nelson WA;Paaijmans KP;Read AF;Thomas MB;Bjørnstad ON
引起疟疾的寄生虫依赖按蚊传播;因此，蚊子种群动态是疟疾风险的关键决定因素。按蚊和引起疟疾的疟原虫寄生虫的发育和存活率都取决于温度，这使得温度成为蚊子种群动态和疟疾传播的潜在驱动因素。我们开发了一个依赖于温度的阶段结构延迟微分方程模型，以更好地理解气候如何决定风险。在模型中包括完整的蚊子生命周期表明，蚊子种群丰度对温度比以前认为的更敏感，因为它受到幼蚊阶段动态的强烈影响，其生命率也依赖于温度。此外，该模型预测，在比以前的模型更准确的温度下，足够大的蚊子数量将达到峰值。我们的研究结果表明，将详细的病媒生物学纳入预测病媒传播疾病风险的模型非常重要。
The parasites that cause malaria depend on Anopheles mosquitoes for transmission; because of this, mosquito population dynamics are a key determinant of malaria risk. Development and survival rates of both the Anopheles mosquitoes and the Plasmodium parasites that cause malaria depend on temperature, making this a potential driver of mosquito population dynamics and malaria transmission. We developed a temperature-dependent, stage-structured delayed differential equation model to better understand how climate determines risk. Including the full mosquito life cycle in the model reveals that the mosquito population abundance is more sensitive to temperature than previously thought because it is strongly influenced by the dynamics of the juvenile mosquito stages whose vital rates are also temperature-dependent. Additionally, the model predicts a peak in abundance of mosquitoes old enough to vector malaria at more accurate temperatures than previous models. Our results point to the importance of incorporating detailed vector biology into models for predicting the risk for vector borne diseases.
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