Toward more comprehensive environmental impact assessments: interlinked global models of LCIA and IAM applicable to this century
Toward more comprehensive environmental impact assessments: interlinked global models of LCIA and IAM applicable to this century
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迈向更全面的环境影响评估：适用于本世纪的 LCIA 和 IAM 相互关联的全球模型
DOI：
10.1007/s11367-020-01750-8
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Masahiro Nishio
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Koji Tokimatsu;Longlong Tang;Rieko Yasuoka;Ryota Ii;Norihiro Itsubo;Masahiro Nishio
目的尽管长期以来对政策制定的动态生命周期评估（LCA）研究有需求，但只有少数研究将这一主题与其他系统思维学科结合起来，例如能源系统模型（ESM）和综合评估模型（IAM），这些学科在评估未来情景中的气候政策方面取得了巨大成功。这项研究解释了我们在 IAM 中纳入 LCA 的全球应用的方法学进展，特别是剂量反应函数、模型和未来情景。方法我们研究了基于端点模型 (LIME) 的生命周期影响评估方法的应用，该方法是在日本和全球当前的环境状况下开发的，以与我们的 IAM 保持一致和兼容，其中包括三个资源平衡模型和一个简化的气候模型。 IAM 内生生成与所应用的 LIME 相关的能源情景和气候政策一致的大多数库存。 IAM 和 LIME 的制定是为了最大限度地减少资源在其生命周期（即从开发到生命周期结束）内供应成本的贴现总和，以生成本世纪全球范围内端点影响的时间演变，无论是否在 100% 可再生能源场景中设定 2 摄氏度 (2DC) 目标。结果和讨论与现有的 LCA+ESM/IAM 研究不同，现有的 LCA+ESM/IAM 研究侧重于发电技术和生命周期中相关的（内）直接嵌入能源消耗在此基础上，我们的模型扩展到除能源之外的矿产和生物质资源，具有以下新的结果：（1）2DC目标中的以下库存普遍低于一切照旧（BAU）中的库存：气温和海平面上升、自然资源和废物排放；此外，通过减少煤炭生产同时增加林业，硫氧化物排放量显着减少。 （2）在排除能源相关影响的情况下，对矿产、土地利用和土地利用变化四个端点的环境影响显着大于与能源相关的影响。 (3) 最后，通过确保库存减少，2DC 目标情景可以减少总体终点影响（最多减少 20% 左右），但为满足预定目标而扩大林业对生物多样性造成的影响除外。结论与主流 IAM 分析不同，我们纳入了 LIME，而不是单独考虑与能源和生物质相关的资源和气候变化影响；因此，我们的模型提供了对各种自然资源及其对生命周期的影响的全面视角。排除加权过程并保留四个端点使我们能够轻松解释结果。此外，LCA 在 IAM 中的应用使我们能够进一步了解和评估自然资源和环境影响。
PurposeDespite the long-standing demand for research on dynamic lifecycle assessment (LCA) for policymaking, only a few studies have addressed this subject in conjunction with other systems thinking disciplines, such as energy systems models (ESMs) and integrated assessment models (IAMs), which have achieved tremendous success in assessing climate policies in future scenarios. This study explains our methodological advances in the global application of LCA incorporated in IAMs, specifically dose-response functions, models, and future scenarios.MethodsWe investigate the application of the lifecycle impact assessment method based on endpoint modeling (LIME), developed under the current environmental situation in Japan and globally, to be consistent and compatible with our IAM, which comprises three resource balance models and a simplified climate model. The IAM endogenously generates most inventories consistent with energy scenarios and climate policies linked with the applied LIME. The IAM and LIME are formulated to minimize the discounted sum of supplying the cost of resources over their lifecycles (i.e., from development to end-of-life) to generate time evolutions for the endpoint impacts over this century on a global scale with/without the 2-degree Celsius (2DC) target in a 100% renewable energy scenario.Results and discussionUnlike existing LCA+ESM/IAM studies, which focus on power generation technologies and related (in)direct embedded energy consumption on a lifecycle basis, our model’s expansion to mineral and biomass resources, in addition to energy, has the following novel results: (1) The following inventories in the 2DC target are generally lower than those in business as usual (BAU): temperature and sea level rise, natural resource, and waste discharge; further, SOx emissions are significantly reduced by reducing coal production while increasing forestry. (2) The environmental impacts on the four endpoints of minerals, land use, and land-use change, with the exclusion of energy-related impacts, are significantly larger than those related to energy. (3) Finally, by ensuring inventory reduction, the 2DC target scenario can reduce overall endpoint impacts (by maximum around 20%), except the impacts on biodiversity resulting from forestry expansion to meet predetermined targets.ConclusionsUnlike mainstream IAM analyses, we incorporate LIME, instead of energy- and biomass-related resource and climate change impacts alone; our model thus provides a comprehensive perspective on various natural resources and their impacts on a lifecycle basis. The exclusion of the weighting process and retention of the four endpoints enable us to easily interpret the results. Further, this application of LCA to IAM enables us to further understand and assess natural resources and environmental impacts.
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DOI：
10.1007/s11367-017-1398-4
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment
影响因子：
--
作者：
B. Weidema;Jannick H. Schmidt;P. Fantke;S. Pauliuk
通讯作者：
S. Pauliuk
全球零排放情景：创新技术的作用☆
DOI：
10.1016/j.egypro.2014.11.930
发表时间：
2014
期刊：
Energy Procedia
影响因子：
--
作者：
K. Tokimatsu;S. Konishi;K. Ishihara;T. Tezuka
通讯作者：
T. Tezuka
全球可再生能源系统：ETSAP/TIAM 中的建模练习
影响因子：
11.2
作者：
H. Lund;P. A. Østergaard;I. Stadler
通讯作者：
I. Stadler
通过综合评估模型利用真实储蓄进行气候政策评估
影响因子：
5.9
作者：
Tokimatsu Koji;Dupuy Louis;Hanley Nick
通讯作者：
Hanley Nick
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Arvesen, Anders;Luderer, Gunnar;Hertwich, Edgar G.
通讯作者：
Hertwich, Edgar G.