Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic.
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衡量业务级别的期望和不确定性：调查证据和COVID-19大流行。
DOI：
10.1007/s42973-021-00078-8
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Zhang H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chen C;Senga T;Zhang H
利用一个独特的企业级调查，在日本，包含五箱预测销售，我们的文件三个结果。首先，企业层面的主观不确定性与过去企业增长的波动性高度正相关。第二，各公司的主观不确定性存在很大差异，主观不确定性极高的长尾。此外，通过国际贸易或外国直接投资参与国际业务的企业的平均预期销售额和主观不确定性都较高。最后，2020年1 - 2月COVID-19疫情突然升级，导致企业的主观不确定性大幅增加。我们的三重差分估计结果表明，这种影响对于通过国际贸易和外国直接投资直接暴露于中国的企业特别大。
Utilizing a unique firm-level survey in Japan that contains five-bin forecasts for sales, we document three findings. First, firm-level subjective uncertainty is highly and positively related to volatility of past firm growth. Second, there are substantial variations in subjective uncertainty across firms, with a long right tail with extremely high subjective uncertainty. In addition, firms that have exposure to international businesses either through international trade or foreign direct investment have both higher average expected sales and subjective uncertainty. Finally, the sudden escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic in January–February 2020 led to a substantial increase in firms’ subjective uncertainty. Our triple-difference estimation results show that this effect is especially large for firms that have direct exposure to China through international trade and foreign direct investment.
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Altig, David;Barrero, Jose Maria;Parker, Nicholas
通讯作者：
Parker, Nicholas
DOI：
10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101138
发表时间：
2021-09
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Kawaguchi, Kohei;Kodama, Naomi;Tanaka, Mari
通讯作者：
Tanaka, Mari
DOI：
10.1016/j.jjie.2020.101118
发表时间：
2021-03
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
Miyakawa, Daisuke;Oikawa, Koki;Ueda, Kozo
通讯作者：
Ueda, Kozo