Dual effects of insect fecundity overdispersion on the Wolbachia establishment and the implications for epidemic biocontrol

Dual effects of insect fecundity overdispersion on the Wolbachia establishment and the implications for epidemic biocontrol
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昆虫繁殖力过度分散对沃尔巴克氏体建立的双重影响及其对流行病生物防治的影响

DOI:
10.1007/s10340-021-01331-0
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发表时间:
2021-01
影响因子:
4.8
通讯作者:
Chen Xiao-Yong
Chen Xiao-Yong
中科院分区:
农林科学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Tong Xin;Compton Stephen G.;Jiao Jing;Chen Yan;Ding Yuan-Yuan;Wang Rong;Chen Xiao-Yong

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最普遍的内共生菌wolbachia spp的利用。解决昆虫传播的病毒疾病正在迅速增长。了解Wolbachia在当地人口中建立的频率和多久是替代版本的基础,但仍然是叔叔
The utilization of the most prevalent endosymbionts Wolbachia spp. to tackle insect-borne viral diseases is growing rapidly. Understanding how and how often Wolbachia establish in a local population is fundamental to replacement releases but remains unclear. Previous models make the prediction of poor performance of Wolbachia at low frequencies that contradicts the natural ubiquity of those endosymbionts, and the prediction of almost certain fixation of Wolbachia at high frequencies that cannot explain the large fluctuations and collapses of infection in field releases. Here, we investigated whether those paradoxes can be reconciled by the stochasticity originating from fecundity overdispersion within host insects. We first reanalysed published data sets and showed that fecundity was mostly overdispersed in insects. To understand the effects of host fecundity variation on Wolbachia establishment, we further constructed a model accounting for cytoplasmic incompatibility and fecundity cost on infected hosts. Based on the empirical results of fecundity overdispersion, the model predicted not only a biologically relevant probability for Wolbachia to establish from a single infection, but also a large uncertainty of fixation at high frequencies. These findings will enable a better understanding of endosymbiont-insect dynamics and help to design sustainable strategies to control arboviral diseases.
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