Modeling the competitive transmission of the Omicron strain and Delta strain of COVID-19.
Modeling the competitive transmission of the Omicron strain and Delta strain of COVID-19.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmaa.2023.127283
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发表时间：
2023-10-15
影响因子：
1.3
通讯作者：
Li, Tingting
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Guo, Youming;Li, Tingting
关键词：
自2021年11月以来，全球多地出现COVID-19的Omicron毒株与Delta毒株竞争传播的病例。为了探索这两个菌株如何在这种竞争性传播中发展，建立了一个新的区室化模型。首先分析了模型的基本性质，得到了基本再生数的表达式，证明了无病平衡点的局部和全局渐近稳定性。然后通过三次样条插值方法，我们获得了2021年12月8日至2022年2月12日美国新增Omicron和Delta病例的数据。使用加权非线性最小二乘估计方法，我们拟合了6个时间序列（累计确诊病例、累计死亡病例、新增病例、新增死亡病例、新增Omicron病例和新增Delta病例），得到了未知参数的估计，得到了这一时间段美国基本再生产数的近似值为。最后，对每种控制策略进行了成本效益分析，得到了不同角度下的最优控制策略。研究结果不仅揭示了新菌株与现有菌株的竞争传播特性，而且为有效控制这些菌株的传播提供了科学建议。
Since November 2021, there have been cases of COVID-19's Omicron strain spreading in competition with Delta strains in many parts of the world. To explore how these two strains developed in this competitive spread, a new compartmentalized model was established. First, we analyzed the fundamental properties of the model, obtained the expression of the basic reproduction number, proved the local and global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium. Then by means of the cubic spline interpolation method, we obtained the data of new Omicron and Delta cases in the United States of new cases starting from December 8, 2021, to February 12, 2022. Using the weighted nonlinear least squares estimation method, we fitted six time series (cumulative confirmed cases, cumulative deaths, new cases, new deaths, new Omicron cases, and new Delta cases), got estimates of the unknown parameters, and obtained an approximation of the basic reproduction number in the United States during this time period as . Finally, each control strategy was evaluated by cost-effectiveness analysis to obtain the optimal control strategy under different perspectives. The results not only show the competitive transmission characteristics of the new strain and existing strain, but also provide scientific suggestions for effectively controlling the spread of these strains.
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