Four phases of the Flint Water Crisis: Evidence from blood lead levels in children.
Four phases of the Flint Water Crisis: Evidence from blood lead levels in children.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.envres.2017.05.028
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发表时间：
2017-08
影响因子：
8.3
通讯作者：
Sadler RC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zahran S;McElmurry SP;Sadler RC
弗林特水危机（FWC）可分为四个阶段的儿童水铅暴露风险：阶段A）在水源切换到弗林特河之前阶段B）在水源切换之后，但在沸水供水系统之前;阶段C）在沸水供水系统之后，但在切换回底特律水和污水处理部门（DWSD）的基线水源之前;和相位D）之后切换回DWSD。这项工作的目的是估计水铅可归因于运动的儿童血铅水平（BLL），对应于四个阶段的FWC。从2013年1月1日至2016年7月19日，我们从杰内塞县抽取了21，000多份具有地理参考和时间戳的儿童血铅样本，开发了一系列准实验模型，以确定弗林特儿童BLL的水铅暴露的因果关系。我们发现，水源转换（从A阶段转换到B阶段）导致平均BLL增加约0.5 μg/dL，并使BLL ≥ 5 μg/dL的儿童的可能性增加了1.91至3.50倍，这意味着额外的561名儿童超过5 μg/dL。我们保守估计，水铅暴露儿童增加的社会成本（仅通过收入损失）为6500万美元，而转换水源预计每年可节省200万美元。在从阶段B到C的切换中，我们发现BLL从最初的上升下降了约50%，这是由于家庭的开水供应和随后的避水行为。最后，恢复到基线水源水（D阶段）使儿童BLL恢复到FWC前的水平，进一步表明水铅暴露是整个FWC期间儿童BLL的一个因果来源。
The Flint Water Crisis (FWC) is divisible into four phases of child water-lead exposure risk: Phase A) before the switch in water source to the Flint River (our baseline); Phase B) after the switch in water source, but before boil water advisories; Phase C) after boil water advisories, but before the switch back to the baseline water source of the Detroit Water and Sewerage Department (DWSD); and Phase D) after the switch back to DWSD. The objective of this work is to estimate water-lead attributable movements in child blood lead levels (BLLs) that correspond with the four phases in the FWC. With over 21,000 geo-referenced and time-stamped blood lead samples from children in Genesee County drawn from January 01, 2013 to July 19, 2016, we develop a series of quasi-experimental models to identify the causal effect of water-lead exposure on child BLLs in Flint. We find that the switch in water source (transitioning from phase A to B) caused mean BLLs to increase by about 0.5 μg/dL, and increased the likelihood of a child presenting with a BLL ≥ 5 μg/dL by a factor of 1.91 to 3.50, implying an additional 561 children exceeding 5 μg/dL. We conservatively estimate cohort social costs (through lost earnings alone) of this increase in water-lead exposed children at $65 million, contrasted with expected annual savings of $2 million from switching water source. On the switch from Phase B to C, we find BLLs decreased about 50% from their initial rise following boil water advisories and subsequent water avoidance behaviors by households. Finally, the return to the baseline source water (Phase D) returned child BLLs to pre-FWC levels further implicating water-lead exposure as a causal source of child BLLs throughout the FWC.
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影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Nevin, Rick;Jacobs, David E.;Cohen, Jonathan
通讯作者：
Cohen, Jonathan
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Salkever, DS
通讯作者：
Salkever, DS
影响因子：
--
作者：
Masten, Susan J.;Davies, Simon H.;McElmurry, Shawn P.
通讯作者：
McElmurry, Shawn P.
影响因子：
10.4
作者：
RABINOWITZ, MB
通讯作者：
RABINOWITZ, MB
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph2006030010
发表时间：
2006-03
影响因子：
--
作者：
Greene NA;Morris VR
通讯作者：
Morris VR