Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics.
Bayesian inference reveals positive but subtle effects of experimental fishery closures on marine predator demographics.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2017.2443
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发表时间：
2018-01-31
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Votier SC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Sherley RB;Barham BJ;Barham PJ;Campbell KJ;Crawford RJM;Grigg J;Horswill C;McInnes A;Morris TL;Pichegru L;Steinfurth A;Weller F;Winker H;Votier SC
全球饲料鱼上岸量正在增加，可能对海洋生态系统造成严重后果。饲料鱼的捕食者可能会受到这种收获的影响，但这些影响的性质是有争议的。实验性渔业操作提供了量化种群影响的最佳解决方案，但很少。我们使用贝叶斯推理来研究濒危非洲企鹅Spheniscus demersus的小鸡生存，身体状况和人口增长率的变化，以响应8年的交替时间-区域关闭两对殖民地。我们的研究结果表明，捕捞关闭改善小鸡的生存和条件，控制后，改变猎物的可用性。然而，这一影响在不同地点和年份不一致，突出表明难以评估海洋生态系统的管理干预措施。尽管如此，在一个殖民地，种群增长率的模拟增长超过了1%，即南非渔业管理部门认为具有生物意义的阈值。休渔显然可以改善依赖饲料鱼类的捕食者的种群趋势，因此我们建议在南非继续休渔，并支持在其他地方实施休渔。然而，要从小型禁捕区发现移动的海洋捕食者的人口增长，需要进行实验，其时间框架和规模往往超出决策者的预期。
Global forage-fish landings are increasing, with potentially grave consequences for marine ecosystems. Predators of forage fish may be influenced by this harvest, but the nature of these effects is contentious. Experimental fishery manipulations offer the best solution to quantify population-level impacts, but are rare. We used Bayesian inference to examine changes in chick survival, body condition and population growth rate of endangered African penguins Spheniscus demersus in response to 8 years of alternating time–area closures around two pairs of colonies. Our results demonstrate that fishing closures improved chick survival and condition, after controlling for changing prey availability. However, this effect was inconsistent across sites and years, highlighting the difficultly of assessing management interventions in marine ecosystems. Nevertheless, modelled increases in population growth rates exceeded 1% at one colony; i.e. the threshold considered biologically meaningful by fisheries management in South Africa. Fishing closures evidently can improve the population trend of a forage-fish-dependent predator—we therefore recommend they continue in South Africa and support their application elsewhere. However, detecting demographic gains for mobile marine predators from small no-take zones requires experimental time frames and scales that will often exceed those desired by decision makers.
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影响因子：
1.2
作者：
Lewis, S. E. F.;Turpie, J. K.;Ryan, P. G.
通讯作者：
Ryan, P. G.
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1422020112
发表时间：
2015-05-26
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Essington, Timothy E.;Moriarty, Pamela E.;Stawitz, Christine C.
通讯作者：
Stawitz, Christine C.
影响因子：
1.2
作者：
Lubbe, A.;Underhill, L. G.;Veen, J.
通讯作者：
Veen, J.
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Mangel, Marc
通讯作者：
Mangel, Marc
影响因子：
5
作者：
Frederiksen, Morten;Jensen, Henrik;Wanless, Sarah
通讯作者：
Wanless, Sarah