Design of an Agent-Based Model to Examine Population-Environment Interactions in Nang Rong District, Thailand.

Design of an Agent-Based Model to Examine Population-Environment Interactions in Nang Rong District, Thailand.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.12.010
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发表时间:
2013-05
期刊:
影响因子:
4.9
通讯作者:
Ding, Deng
Ding, Deng
中科院分区:
地球科学2区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Walsh, Stephen J.;Malanson, George P.;Entwisle, Barbara;Rindfuss, Ronald R.;Mucha, Peter J.;Heumann, Benjamin W.;McDaniel, Philip M.;Frizzelle, Brian G.;Verdery, Ashton M.;Williams, Nathalie E.;Yao, Xiaozheng;Ding, Deng

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基于代理的模型(ABM)的设计,集成了社会和土地利用模块,研究人口与环境的相互作用,在泰国东北部的前农业前沿。ABM被用来评估Nang Rong县的家庭收入和来自低地农业生产、雨养水稻和高地作物的财富,以及在城市从事非农就业的家庭移民返回家庭的汇款。ABM由近10,000个家庭的纵向社会调查,土地利用变化轨迹的深度卫星图像时间序列,GIS中组织的多主题社会和生态数据以及一套整合农业种植系统模型数据的软件模块提供支持(DSSAT -农业技术转让决策支持)和土地适宜性模型(MAXENT -最大熵),以及个人和家庭的多维人口调查数据。ABM的主要模块是土地利用模块、迁移模块、资产模块、土地适宜性模块、作物产量模块、肥料模块和土地利用变化决策模块。ABM的架构相对于模块功能和通过单向或双向链路的连接性来描述。一般来说,社会模块模拟人口和社交网络的变化,以及人口迁移和家庭资产的变化,而土地利用模块模拟土地利用类型,土地适宜性和作物产量的变化。我们强调的土地利用模块的描述-模块之间的算法和相互作用的描述相对于评估家庭收入和财富相对于土地利用模式,家庭人口,人口迁移,社交网络的变化的项目目标,以及农业活动,集体发生在一个边缘化的环境,受到一套内源性和外源性的动态。
The design of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) is described that integrates Social and Land Use Modules to examine population-environment interactions in a former agricultural frontier in Northeastern Thailand. The ABM is used to assess household income and wealth derived from agricultural production of lowland, rain-fed paddy rice and upland field crops in Nang Rong District as well as remittances returned to the household from family migrants who are engaged in off-farm employment in urban destinations. The ABM is supported by a longitudinal social survey of nearly 10,000 households, a deep satellite image time-series of land use change trajectories, multi-thematic social and ecological data organized within a GIS, and a suite of software modules that integrate data derived from an agricultural cropping system model (DSSAT – Decision Support for Agrotechnology Transfer) and a land suitability model (MAXENT – Maximum Entropy), in addition to multi-dimensional demographic survey data of individuals and households. The primary modules of the ABM are the Initialization Module, Migration Module, Assets Module, Land Suitability Module, Crop Yield Module, Fertilizer Module, and the Land Use Change Decision Module. The architecture of the ABM is described relative to module function and connectivity through uni-directional or bi-directional links. In general, the Social Modules simulate changes in human population and social networks, as well as changes in population migration and household assets, whereas the Land Use Modules simulate changes in land use types, land suitability, and crop yields. We emphasize the description of the Land Use Modules – the algorithms and interactions between the modules are described relative to the project goals of assessing household income and wealth relative to shifts in land use patterns, household demographics, population migration, social networks, and agricultural activities that collectively occur within a marginalized environment that is subjected to a suite of endogenous and exogenous dynamics.
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