Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue.
Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0048258
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Yamamoto T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Oki M;Yamamoto T
有人认为，由于气候变化，登革热流行的可能性可能会增加。流行病的概率通常由基本繁殖数（R 0）来评估，在蚊媒疾病中，蚊子密度（每人的雌蚊数量[MPP]）是R 0值的关键决定因素。在登革热流行地区，4种不同血清型的登革热病毒共存，这种状态被称为高流行，并且一定比例的人群对这些血清型中的一种或多种具有免疫力。然而，这些因素不包括在R 0的计算中。我们的目的是调查温度变化，群体免疫力和高流行性对触发流行病的阈值MPP的影响。我们设计了登革热传播动力学的数学模型。流行病定义为一年内血清阳性率增加10%，触发流行病的MPP定义为阈值MPP。根据1980年至2009年记录的温度在新加坡进行了模拟。在（1）仅温度;（2）温度和群体免疫力波动;（3）温度、免疫力波动和高流行性的影响下估计了MPP阈值。当仅考虑温度的影响时，20世纪80年代的阈值MPP估计为0.53，2000年代为0.46，下降了13.2%。在模型中考虑了群体免疫力波动和高流行率的影响后，从20世纪80年代到21世纪初，MPP阈值下降了38.7%，从0.93下降到0.57。如果不考虑群体免疫，则低估了阈值MPP，如果不包括在模拟中的高流行性，则高估了阈值MPP。除了温度之外，在量化阈值MPP以设定登革热流行地区病媒控制目标时，这些因素也特别重要。
It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R0), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R0 value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist–a state known as hyperendemicity–and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R0. We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic. We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s. The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas.
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影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Cummings DA;Iamsirithaworn S;Lessler JT;McDermott A;Prasanthong R;Nisalak A;Jarman RG;Burke DS;Gibbons RV
通讯作者：
Gibbons RV
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0507320102
发表时间：
2005-10-18
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Cummings, DAT;Schwartz, IB;Burke, DS
通讯作者：
Burke, DS
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
FOCKS, DA;HAILE, DG;MOUNT, GA
通讯作者：
MOUNT, GA
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
Favier, C;Degallier, N;Tsouris, P
通讯作者：
Tsouris, P
DOI：
10.4269/ajtmh.1995.53.489
发表时间：
1995-11-01
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
FOCKS, DA;DANIELS, E;KEESLING, JE
通讯作者：
KEESLING, JE