Concerns Over Population Ageing: Still a Contested Space
Concerns Over Population Ageing: Still a Contested Space
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对人口老龄化的担忧：仍然是一个有争议的领域
DOI：
10.1007/s12062-023-09441-6
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Harper S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Harper S
人口老龄化杂志(2023)16：815-818世界各地的动态，因为我们重新思考衡量和概念化年龄结构变化的含义的方法。例如，Cravino等人(2022)认为，结构转型过程--随着时间的推移，经济活动在各个部门之间的大规模重新分配--与农业和制造业相对规模的下降和服务业的相应上升相关，通常由技术转型等概念来解释--现在也受到年龄结构变化的推动。HOpenhayn等人(2022)和Karahan等人(2019)都试图证明，不那么令人信服的是，成年人和老年人的增加减少了创业和初创企业，这与社会学研究相反，后者揭示了老年工人依靠他们积累的财富和经验在经济中发挥的越来越大的作用(Holmquist等人，2019年；Harper，2023)。同样，Bull等人(2023)认为，他们发现欧洲老年员工的个人生产率潜力(IPP)得分低于年轻员工的原因之一，可能与将潜在的生产性工作任务分配给年轻员工有关，从而潜在地减少了老年员工跟上年轻员工潜在生产率的机会。高技能北欧国家的情况尤其如此，其特点是劳动力的平均技能水平较高，而在一般技能水平较低的南欧国家则不是这样。因此，他们辩称，雇主应该为年长的员工提供教育和培训，政府有责任在整个生命周期提供正式培训。他们还认识到，在许多欧洲工业化国家，现在正在努力通过在包括中后期在内的整个生命过程中接受正规教育来提高人口的技能。谈到更广泛的概念方法，Fernandez-Villaverde等人在他们的论文《工作国家的财富》(The Wealth Of Working Nations)(2023)中认为，我们需要重新思考如何衡量人口依赖的概念，这表明，随着高收入经济体的人口老龄化，人均产出增长是标准增长理论的误导性指标。他们认为，劳动年龄人口的变化变得如此之大，以至于人均产出增长可能掩盖了劳动年龄成年人人均产出的重要变动，这是一个更自然的变量，值得关注。Acemoglu和Restrepo(2022)转向关注技术，认为老龄化导致更大的工业自动化，特别是更密集地使用和开发机器人。他们分析了各国的比较数据，结果表明，人口结构的变化--与老年工人与中年工人比例的上升相对应--与各国更多地采用机器人和其他自动化技术有关，证据表明，在经历更大人口变化的国家，自动化技术发展得更快。Kotschy和Bloom(2023)的一篇出色的论文提醒我们健康的重要性，特别是关注健康的预期寿命，而不是预期寿命本身。根据经合组织过去65年的专家小组数据，他们预测到2050年的经济增长，认为年龄结构的转变确实会减缓世界大部分地区的经济增长。预计几乎所有经合组织国家在未来几十年都将经历经济放缓，这种人口拖累将成为经历人口转型后期阶段的国家的常态。七十岁的…
Journal of Population Ageing (2023) 16: 815–818 dynamics of the world around as we rethink ways of both measuring and conceptualising the implications of age-structural change. Cravino et al.(2022), for example, argue that the structural transformation process-large reallocations of economic activity across sectors over time-associated with a decline in the relative size of the agriculture and manufacturing sectors and a corresponding rise in the service sector, conventionally explained by ideas such as technological transformation–are now being also driven by age-structural change. Both Hopenhayn et al.(2022), and Karahan et al.(2019) attempt to show, not that convincingly, that an increase in mature and older adults reduces entrepreneurship and start-ups, counter to sociological work which has revealed the increasing role that older workers are playing in this economy drawing on their accumulation of wealth and experience (Holmquist et al., 2019; Harper, 2023).Similarly, Boring et al.,(2023) argue that one reason for their findings that older workers in Europe have a lower individual productivity potential (IPP) score than younger workers, maybe related to the allocation of potentially productive work tasks to younger workers, thus potentially reducing the older employees’ opportunity to keep up with the potential productivity of younger employees. This is particularly the case in high skilled Northern European countries, characterised by a high average skills level in the workforce, less so in Southern European countries where the general skills level is lower. They thus argue that employers should offer their older employees education and training, and that governments have a responsibility to offer formal training across the life course. They also recognise that in many European industrialised countries, efforts are now being made to increase the population’s skills through formal education across the life course, including mid-and later life. Turning to broader conceptual approaches, Fernandez-Villaverde et al.(2023) in their paper The Wealth of Working Nations argue that we need to rethink how we measure concepts around demographic dependency, suggesting that as the populations of high income economies age, output growth per capita is a misleading indicator for standard growth theory. They argue that changes in the working-age population become so large that output growth per capita may hide important movements in output per working-age adult, a more natural variable on which to focus. Acemoglu and Restrepo (2022) turn to focus on technology, arguing that ageing leads to greater industrial automation, and especially, to more intensive use and development of robots. Analysing comparative national data, they show that demographic change—corresponding to an increasing ratio of older to middle-aged workers—is associated with greater adoption of robots and other automation technologies across countries, with evidence of more rapid development of automation technologies in countries undergoing greater demographic change. An excellent paper by Kotschy and Bloom (2023) reminds us of the importance of health and in particular the focus on healthy life expectancy rather than life expectancy per se. Drawing on OECD panel data from the past 65 years, they project economic growth to 2050, arguing that age-structural shifts will indeed will slow economic growth throughout much of the world. Almost all OECD countries are predicted to experience an economic slowdown in the upcoming decades, and this demographic drag will be the norm among countries that advance through later stages of the demographic transition. Seventy …
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Social Science Research Network
影响因子：
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作者：
Jesús Fernández;Gustavo Ventura;Wen Yao
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2008
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2023
期刊：
Social Science Research Network
影响因子：
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作者：
Rainer Kotschy;D. Bloom
通讯作者：
D. Bloom
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DOI：
--
发表时间：
2019
期刊：
影响因子：
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作者：
Bernhard Hammer;A. Prskawetz;R. Gál;Lili Vargha;Tanja Istenič
通讯作者：
Tanja Istenič