Opinion formation and the collective dynamics of risk perception.
Opinion formation and the collective dynamics of risk perception.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0084592
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Moussaïd M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Moussaïd M
集体意见的形成是一种复杂的现象，是大众媒介接触和个人之间的社会影响共同作用的结果。目前的工作引入了一个专门用于解决风险判断的意见形成模型，例如对气候变化、恐怖主义威胁或儿童疫苗接种的态度。该模型假设人们从媒体环境中收集风险信息，并在当地与其他人交换。尽管个体最初接触到的是相同的信息样本，但该模型预测了意见极化和聚类的出现。数值模拟特别强调了决定集体结果的两个关键因素：个人寻找独立信息的倾向和社会影响力的强度。这项工作为预测和管理公众对特定风险的反应提供了一个定量框架，并有助于理解恐惧和担忧的系统性放大，或对实际危险的低估。
The formation of collective opinion is a complex phenomenon that results from the combined effects of mass media exposure and social influence between individuals. The present work introduces a model of opinion formation specifically designed to address risk judgments, such as attitudes towards climate change, terrorist threats, or children vaccination. The model assumes that people collect risk information from the media environment and exchange them locally with other individuals. Even though individuals are initially exposed to the same sample of information, the model predicts the emergence of opinion polarization and clustering. In particular, numerical simulations highlight two crucial factors that determine the collective outcome: the propensity of individuals to search for independent information, and the strength of social influence. This work provides a quantitative framework to anticipate and manage how the public responds to a given risk, and could help understanding the systemic amplification of fears and worries, or the underestimation of real dangers.
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作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0810762106
发表时间：
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影响因子：
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