The meso scale as a frontier in interdisciplinary modeling of sustainability from local to global scales
The meso scale as a frontier in interdisciplinary modeling of sustainability from local to global scales
复制标题
中观尺度作为从地方到全球尺度的可持续发展跨学科建模的前沿
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acb503
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Williams, David R
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Johnson, Justin Andrew;Brown, Molly E;Corong, Erwin;Dietrich, Jan Philipp;C Henry, Roslyn;von Jeetze, Patrick José;Leclère, David;Popp, Alexander;Thakrar, Sumil K;Williams, David R
实现可持续发展需要了解人类行为和环境如何在空间尺度上相互作用。特别是，了解如何管理环境与经济之间的权衡，或者一个空间尺度与另一个空间尺度之间的权衡，需要一种允许这些不同组件相互作用的建模方法。现有的综合地方和全球分析提供了关键的见解，但往往不能捕捉到在地方和全球之间的尺度上运作的“中尺度”现象，导致错误的预测和有限的分析范围。由于中尺度现象的复杂性和计算挑战，中尺度现象很难建模，其中添加额外的尺度会以指数方式增加模型运行时间。然而，这些补充是必要的，以使模型包含足够的细节，供决策者评估权衡。在这里，我们综合了明确包括中尺度现象的研究，并评估了在改进我们的预测和扩大可持续性科学可以回答的问题范围方面进一步努力可能取得成果的地方。我们重点介绍了与可持续科学相关的五类模型，包括生物物理模型、综合评估模型、土地利用变化模型、地球经济模型和空间降尺度模型。我们概述了这些研究领域中存在的技术和方法挑战，并讨论了未来研究的七个方向，这些方向将提高中尺度效应的覆盖范围。此外，我们提供了一个具体的工作实例，展示了在综合地球经济模型中模拟中尺度现象所面临的挑战和可能的解决方案。
Achieving sustainable development requires understanding how human behavior and the environment interact across spatial scales. In particular, knowing how to manage tradeoffs between the environment and the economy, or between one spatial scale and another, necessitates a modeling approach that allows these different components to interact. Existing integrated local and global analyses provide key insights, but often fail to capture'meso-scale'phenomena that operate at scales between the local and the global, leading to erroneous predictions and a constrained scope of analysis. Meso-scale phenomena are difficult to model because of their complexity and computational challenges, where adding additional scales can increase model run-time exponentially. These additions, however, are necessary to make models that include sufficient detail for policy-makers to assess tradeoffs. Here, we synthesize research that explicitly includes meso-scale phenomena and assess where further efforts might be fruitful in improving our predictions and expanding the scope of questions that sustainability science can answer. We emphasize five categories of models relevant to sustainability science, including biophysical models, integrated assessment models, land-use change models, earth-economy models and spatial downscaling models. We outline the technical and methodological challenges present in these areas of research and discuss seven directions for future research that will improve coverage of meso-scale effects. Additionally, we provide a specific worked example that shows the challenges present, and possible solutions, for modeling meso-scale phenomena in integrated earth-economy models.
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DOI：
10.1177/0973408215600602b
发表时间：
2015-09
期刊：
Journal of Education for Sustainable Development
影响因子：
--
作者：
通讯作者：
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使用 GLOBIO 4 预测陆地生物多样性完整性
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
A. Schipper;J. Hilbers;Johan R. Meijer;L. Antão;A. Benítez‐López;Melinda M J de Jonge;L. Leemans;E. Scheper;R. Alkemade;J. Doelman;S. Mylius;E. Stehfest;D. V. van Vuuren;Willem;M. Huijbregts
通讯作者：
M. Huijbregts
DOI：
10.5194/gmd-2019-360
发表时间：
2020-04
期刊：
Siam Journal on Scientific and Statistical Computing
影响因子：
--
作者：
G. Hurtt;L. Chini;R. Sahajpal;S. Frolking;B. Bodirsky;K. Calvin;J. Doelman;J. Fisk;S. Fujimori-S.-Fuj
通讯作者：
G. Hurtt;L. Chini;R. Sahajpal;S. Frolking;B. Bodirsky;K. Calvin;J. Doelman;J. Fisk;S. Fujimori-S.-Fuj
使用自然未来框架开发多尺度和综合的自然-人类场景
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
L. Pereira;Kathryn K. Davies;E. Belder;S. Ferrier;Sylvia Karlsson;HyeJin Kim;J. Kuiper;Sana Okayasu;M. G. Palomo;H. Pereira;Garry D. Peterson;J. Sathyapalan;Machteld Schoolenberg;R. Alkemade;S. Ribeiro;A. Greenaway;J. Hauck;N. King;Tanya Lazarova;Federica Ravera;N. Chettri;W. Cheung;Rob J. J. Hendriks;Grigoriy Kolomytsev;P. Leadley;J. Metzger;K. Ninan;R. Pichs;A. Popp;C. Rondinini;I. Rosa;D. Vuuren;C. Lundquist
通讯作者：
C. Lundquist
丰富共享社会经济路径，共同为英国创造一致的多部门情景。
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Simona Pedde;P. Harrison;I. Holman;G. Powney;S. Lofts;R. Schmucki;Marc R Gramberger;J. Bullock
通讯作者：
J. Bullock