Modeling Immunity to Malaria with an Age-Structured PDE Framework
Modeling Immunity to Malaria with an Age-Structured PDE Framework
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使用年龄结构 PDE 框架对疟疾免疫进行建模
DOI：
10.1137/21m1464427
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Zhao, Lihong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Qu, Zhuolin;Patterson, Denis;Childs, Lauren M.;Edholm, Christina J.;Ponce, Joan;Prosper, Olivia;Zhao, Lihong
疟疾是全球最致命的传染病之一，每年造成数十万人死亡。它不成比例地影响幼儿，三分之二的死亡发生在五岁以下儿童中。个人通过反复接触获得免受疾病的保护，这种免疫力在疟疾传播的动态中起着至关重要的作用。我们开发了一个新的年龄结构PDE疟疾模型，耦合媒介-宿主流行病学动力学与免疫动力学。我们的模型跟踪的收购和损失的抗病免疫力在传输及其相应的非线性反馈的传输参数。我们推导出基本再生数（）作为无病平衡点稳定性的阈值条件;我们还将概率解释为感染个体在不同感染阶段和不同年龄产生的病例的加权和。我们使用撒哈拉以南地区的人口和免疫学数据来参数化我们的模型。数值分歧分析表明地方病平衡点的存在，我们观察到一个前向分歧。我们的数值模拟再现了免疫谱和感染状态的年龄分布的异质性频繁暴露。受最近批准的RTS，S疫苗的启发，我们还研究了疫苗接种的影响;我们的结果显示，由于延迟暴露的获得性免疫力降低，幼儿中严重疾病的减少，但年龄较大的儿童中严重疟疾的增加幅度较小。
Malaria is one of the deadliest infectious diseases globally, causing hundreds of thousands of deaths each year. It disproportionately affects young children, with two-thirds of fatalities occurring in under-fives. Individuals acquire protection from disease through repeated exposure, and this immunity plays a crucial role in the dynamics of malaria spread. We develop a novel age-structured PDE malaria model, which couples vector-host epidemiological dynamics with immunity dynamics. Our model tracks the acquisition and loss of antidisease immunity during transmission and its corresponding nonlinear feedback onto the transmission parameters. We derive the basic reproduction number () as the threshold condition for the stability of disease-free equilibrium; we also interpretprobabilistically as a weighted sum of cases generated by infected individuals at different infectious stages and different ages. We parametrize our model using demographic and immunological data from sub-Saharan regions. Numerical bifurcation analysis demonstrates the existence of an endemic equilibrium, and we observe a forward bifurcation in. Our numerical simulations reproduce the heterogeneity in the age distributions of immunity profiles and infection status created by frequent exposure. Motivated by the recently approved RTS,S vaccine, we also study the impact of vaccination; our results show a reduction in severe disease among young children but a small increase in severe malaria among older children due to lower acquired immunity from delayed exposure.
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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期刊：
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