Climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef fail when global warming exceeds 3°C.
Climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef fail when global warming exceeds 3°C.
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.16323
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发表时间：
2022-10
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
海水温度升高的幅度、频率和持续时间的增加正在全球范围内造成大规模珊瑚死亡事件。虽然，即使在最广泛的白化事件中，一些珊瑚礁也逃脱了严重的压力，构成了潜在的避难所。在这里，我们确定了大堡礁（GBR）目前的气候避难所，并预测了它们在未来的持久性。为此，我们对IPCC最近发布的第六次评估报告中的一系列气候预测应用了半动态降尺度。我们发现，在过去的20年中，GBR地区经历了最小的热应力，这是因为它们的海洋环境，这意味着气候避难的长期持续是可行的。具体来说，远离海面的暖水的潮汐和风混合似乎可以缓解变暖。然而，平均而言，这种相对优势只会持续到全球变暖超过~3°C。全球平均气温上升正在推动世界各地的大规模珊瑚死亡事件。尽管如此，还是有一些珊瑚礁可以逃避温暖的暴露，被认为是潜在的避难所。我们采用了一种独特的方法来提高大堡礁的粗分辨率气候预测，隔离了在过去20年中经历了最少的热应力的位置。风和潮汐的混合使这些地区的气候难民得以持续存在。然而，这种优势只会持续到全球平均变暖超过~3°C。
Increases in the magnitude, frequency, and duration of warm seawater temperatures are causing mass coral mortality events across the globe. Although, even during the most extensive bleaching events, some reefs escape exposure to severe stress, constituting potential refugia. Here, we identify present‐day climate refugia on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and project their persistence into the future. To do this, we apply semi‐dynamic downscaling to an ensemble of climate projections released for the IPCC's recent sixth Assessment Report. We find that GBR locations experiencing the least thermal stress over the past 20 years have done so because of their oceanographic circumstance, which implies that longer‐term persistence of climate refugia is feasible. Specifically, tidal and wind mixing of warm water away from the sea surface appears to provide relief from warming. However, on average this relative advantage only persists until global warming exceeds ~3°C. Increasing global average temperatures are driving mass coral mortality events around the world. Although, there are some reefs that escape the warm exposure, deemed as a potential refugia. We apply a unique method to improve coarse resolution climate projections over the Great Barrier Reef, isolating the locations that have experienced the least amount of thermal stress over the past 20 years. Wind and tidal mixing enabled the persistence of climate refugia in these locations. However, this advantage only persists until global average warming exceeds ~3°C.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Eakin CM;Morgan JA;Heron SF;Smith TB;Liu G;Alvarez-Filip L;Baca B;Bartels E;Bastidas C;Bouchon C;Brandt M;Bruckner AW;Bunkley-Williams L;Cameron A;Causey BD;Chiappone M;Christensen TR;Crabbe MJ;Day O;de la Guardia E;Díaz-Pulido G;DiResta D;Gil-Agudelo DL;Gilliam DS;Ginsburg RN;Gore S;Guzmán HM;Hendee JC;Hernández-Delgado EA;Husain E;Jeffrey CF;Jones RJ;Jordán-Dahlgren E;Kaufman LS;Kline DI;Kramer PA;Lang JC;Lirman D;Mallela J;Manfrino C;Maréchal JP;Marks K;Mihaly J;Miller WJ;Mueller EM;Muller EM;Orozco Toro CA;Oxenford HA;Ponce-Taylor D;Quinn N;Ritchie KB;Rodríguez S;Ramírez AR;Romano S;Samhouri JF;Sánchez JA;Schmahl GP;Shank BV;Skirving WJ;Steiner SC;Villamizar E;Walsh SM;Walter C;Weil E;Williams EH;Roberson KW;Yusuf Y
通讯作者：
Yusuf Y
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Byrne, Michael P.;O'Gorman, Paul A.
通讯作者：
O'Gorman, Paul A.
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Brodie, J. E.;Kroon, F. J.;Davis, A. M.
通讯作者：
Davis, A. M.
影响因子：
8.5
作者：
Beyer, Hawthorne L.;Kennedy, Emma, V;Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove
通讯作者：
Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove
影响因子：
11.6
作者：
Cacciapaglia, Chris;van Woesik, Robert
通讯作者：
van Woesik, Robert