Retreating or standing: responses of forest species and steppe species to climate change in arid Eastern Central Asia.
Retreating or standing: responses of forest species and steppe species to climate change in arid Eastern Central Asia.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0061954
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Sanderson SC
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhang HX;Zhang ML;Sanderson SC
预计未来干旱的中亚东部气温将会升高，降水变化也会增加。为了研究气候变化对该地区植物物种的影响，我们选择了分别来自山地针叶林和干旱草原生境的两种广泛分布的物种：西伯利亚铁线莲和松戈铁线莲。我们采用分子系统发育地理学和物种分布模型（SDM）相结合的方法，利用过去的反应证据来预测这两个物种对气候变化的未来反应。 C. sibirica 的遗传数据显示了更新世冰期-间冰期循环期间显着的系统发育地理学信号（N ST > F ST，P<0.05）和人口收缩。面对未来的气候变化，这种森林物种的活动范围可能会缩小，但不会造成遗传损失。相比之下，SDM 预测，草原物种 C. Songorica 在末次盛冰期 (LGM) 和未来的气候条件下，参考其现有的潜在分布，应该保持一致稳定的潜在分布。分子结果表明，该草原物种中显着的系统发育地理学信号的存在被拒绝，并且该物种的 cpDNA 中种群之间存在高水平的遗传分化，可能受益于长期稳定的栖息地。这两个物种的分子系统发育地理学证据表明，森林物种比草原物种对过去的气候变化更敏感。 SDM预测森林物种未来将比草原物种面临潜在范围缩小的挑战。这为干旱中亚东部的生态管理提供了一个视角，表明应更加关注山地森林物种，因为它们对干扰高度敏感。
The temperature in arid Eastern Central Asia is projected to increase in the future, accompanied by increased variability of precipitation. To investigate the impacts of climate change on plant species in this area, we selected two widespread species as candidates, Clematis sibirica and C. songorica, from montane coniferous forest and arid steppe habitats respectively. We employed a combined approach of molecular phylogeography and species distribution modelling (SDM) to predict the future responses of these two species to climate change, utilizing evidence of responses from the past. Genetic data for C. sibirica shows a significant phylogeographical signal (N ST > F ST, P<0.05) and demographic contraction during the glacial-interglacial cycles in the Pleistocene. This forest species would likely experience range reduction, though without genetic loss, in the face of future climate change. In contrast, SDMs predict that C. songorica, a steppe species, should maintain a consistently stable potential distribution under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the future climatic conditions referring to its existing potential distribution. Molecular results indicate that the presence of significant phylogeographical signal in this steppe species is rejected and this species contains a high level of genetic differentiation among populations in cpDNA, likely benefiting from stable habitats over a lengthy time period. Evidence from the molecular phylogeography of these two species, the forest species is more sensitive to past climate changes than the steppe species. SDMs predict that the forest species will face the challenge of potential range contraction in the future more than the steppe species. This provides a perspective on ecological management in arid Eastern Central Asia, indicating that increased attention should be paid to montane forest species, due to their high sensitivity to disturbance.
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