Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) during winter influenza season in the southern hemisphere.
Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) during winter influenza season in the southern hemisphere.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1111/j.1750-2659.2010.00147.x
复制
发表时间：
2010-07
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Hsieh YH
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hsieh YH
请引用本文：Hsieh Ying-Hen。 (2010) 南半球冬季流感季节期间甲型 H1N1 流感大流行。流感和其他呼吸道病毒 4(4), 187–197。 背景 2009 年 5 月至 8 月期间，南半球国家在冬季经历了大规模的 H1N1 流感疫情。方法 我们利用 Richards 模型对南半球 6 个国家（阿根廷、巴西、智利、澳大利亚、新西兰和南非）的公开疫情数据（确诊病例、住院人数和死亡人数）进行拟合，从其传染数和疫情转折点方面得出有用的结论。典型冬季流感季节的 pH1N1 病毒。 结果 对这六个国家的传染数的估计范围从巴西确诊病例数据的最高 1·53（95% CI：1·22、1·84）到澳大利亚 pH1N1 住院数据的最低 1·16（1·09、1·22）。对于每个国家，使用确诊病例、住院或死亡数据进行模型拟合总是会得出类似的再生数估计值。此外，只要有这三个指标中的两个或多个，这些密切相关的疫情指标的转折点总是遵循正确的时间顺序，即病例-住院-死亡。 结论 结果表明，从繁殖数来看，南半球冬季 pH1N1 疫情的严重程度和传播能力与北美春季较早和冬季较晚的疫情相似。因此，当前的毒株在2009年在全球范围内传播时并没有像一些专家警告的那样变得更加严重或具有传播性。研究结果将有助于制定 2010 年秋季/冬季可能出现的第三波 pH1N1 感染的全球准备计划。
Please cite this paper as: Hsieh Ying‐Hen. (2010) Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) during winter influenza season in the southern hemisphere. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(4), 187–197. Background Countries in the southern hemisphere experienced sizable epidemics of pandemic influenza H1N1 in their winter season during May–August, 2009. Methods We make use of the Richards model to fit the publicly available epidemic data (confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths) of six southern hemisphere countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa) to draw useful conclusions, in terms of its reproduction numbers and outbreak turning points, regarding the new pH1N1 virus in a typical winter influenza season. Results The estimates for the reproduction numbers of these six countries range from a high of 1·53 (95% CI: 1·22, 1·84) for confirmed case data of Brazil to a low of 1·16 (1·09, 1·22) for pH1N1 hospitalizations in Australia. For each country, model fits using confirmed cases, hospitalizations, or deaths data always yield similar estimates for the reproduction number. Moreover, the turning points for these closely related outbreak indicators always follow the correct chronological order, i.e., case–hospitalization–death, whenever two or more of these three indicators are available. Conclusions The results suggest that the winter pH1N1 outbreaks in the southern hemisphere were similar to the earlier spring and later winter outbreaks in North America in its severity and transmissibility, as indicated by the reproduction numbers. Therefore, the current strain has not become more severe or transmissible while circulating around the globe in 2009 as some experts had cautioned. The results will be useful for global preparedness planning of possible tertiary waves of pH1N1 infections in the fall/winter of 2010.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Nishiura, Hiroshi;Chowell, Gerardo;Wallinga, Jacco
通讯作者：
Wallinga, Jacco
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Bettencourt LM;Ribeiro RM
通讯作者：
Ribeiro RM
影响因子：
5
作者：
Wallinga, J;Teunis, P
通讯作者：
Teunis, P
影响因子：
2
作者：
White, L. Forsberg;Pagano, M.
通讯作者：
Pagano, M.
影响因子：
5
作者：
Cauchemez, Simon;Boelle, Pierre-Yves;Valleron, Alain-Jacques
通讯作者：
Valleron, Alain-Jacques