Age-period-cohort analysis of 1990-2003 incidence time trends of childhood diabetes in Italy: the RIDI study.
Age-period-cohort analysis of 1990-2003 incidence time trends of childhood diabetes in Italy: the RIDI study.
复制标题
DOI：
10.2337/db10-0151
复制
发表时间：
2010-09
期刊：
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
RIDI Study Group
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bruno G;Maule M;Merletti F;Novelli G;Falorni A;Iannilli A;Iughetti L;Altobelli E;d'Annunzio G;Piffer S;Pozzilli P;Iafusco D;Songini M;Roncarolo F;Toni S;Carle F;Cherubini V;RIDI Study Group
旨在调查意大利登记处 0-14 岁儿童年龄-时期-队列对 1 型糖尿病时间趋势的影响。本报告基于意大利 1 型糖尿病登记处 (RIDI) 1990 年至 2003 年期间的 5,180 起事件案例。使用多级（随机截距）泊松回归模型来模拟性别、年龄、日历时间和出生队列对时间趋势的影响，并考虑登记级别方差分量。发病率为每 10 万人年 12.26 例，男孩 (13.13 [95% CI 12.66–13.62]) 显着高于女孩 (11.35 [10.90–11.82])。意大利境内发病率的巨大地理差异是显而易见的；撒丁岛的发病率最高，意大利中南部的发病率居中，意大利北部的发病率较高，特别是特伦托省，该省的发病率为每10万人年18.67例。时间上的增长趋势很明显（每年 2.94% [95% CI 2.22–3.67]）。就 1990-1992 年日历期间而言，在随后的时间段内发病率线性增加了 15%、27%、35% 和 40%（趋势 P < 0.001）。对于1987-1993年出生队列，发病率比从1975-1981年队列的0.63（95% CI 0.54-0.73）近似线性增加到1999-2003年队列的1.38（1.06-1.80）。然而，最好的模型包括性别、年龄和线性时间趋势（漂移）。意大利 1 型糖尿病儿童的糖尿病发病率存在明显的地理差异和时间趋势。年龄-周期-队列分析表明，随时间的变化具有线性成分，不能归因于日历周期或出生队列。
To investigate age-period-cohort effects on the temporal trend of type 1 diabetes in children age 0–14 years in Italian registries. This report is based on 5,180 incident cases in the period 1990–2003 from the Registry for Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus in Italy (RIDI). Multilevel (random intercept) Poisson regression models were used to model the effects of sex, age, calendar time, and birth cohorts on temporal trends, taking into account the registry-level variance component. The incidence rate was 12.26 per 100,000 person-years and significantly higher in boys (13.13 [95% CI 12.66–13.62]) than in girls (11.35 [10.90–11.82]). Large geographical variations in incidence within Italy were evident; incidence was highest in Sardinia, intermediate in Central-Southern Italy, and high in Northern Italy, particularly in the Trento Province, where the incidence rate was 18.67 per 100,000 person-years. An increasing temporal trend was evident (2.94% per year [95% CI 2.22–3.67]). With respect to the calendar period 1990–1992, the incidence rates increased linearly by 15, 27, 35, and 40% in the following time periods (P for trend < 0.001). With respect to the 1987–1993 birth cohort, the incidence rate ratio increased approximately linearly from 0.63 (95% CI 0.54–0.73) in the 1975–1981 cohort to 1.38 (1.06–1.80) in the 1999–2003 cohort. The best model, however, included sex, age, and a linear time trend (drift). Large geographical variations and an increasing temporal trend in diabetes incidence are evident among type 1 diabetic children in Italy. Age-period-cohort analysis shows that the variation over time has a linear component that cannot be ascribed to either the calendar period or the birth cohort.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
16.2
作者：
Bruno, G;Runzo, C;Pagano, G
通讯作者：
Pagano, G
影响因子：
16.2
作者：
Carle, F;Gesuita, R;Cherubini, V
通讯作者：
Cherubini, V
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Schober, Edith;Rami, Birgit;Waldhoer, Thomas
通讯作者：
Waldhoer, Thomas
影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Harjutsalo, Valma;Sjoberg, Lena;Tuomilehto, Jaakko
通讯作者：
Tuomilehto, Jaakko
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Ehehalt, S.;Blumenstock, G.;Neu, A.
通讯作者：
Neu, A.