Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics.
Large anomalies in future extreme precipitation sensitivity driven by atmospheric dynamics.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-023-39039-7
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发表时间：
2023-06-02
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Guo, Shenglian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Gu, Lei;Yin, Jiabo;Gentine, Pierre;Wang, Hui-Min;Slater, Louise J.;Sullivan, Sylvia C.;Chen, Jie;Zscheischler, Jakob;Guo, Shenglian
在气候变暖的情况下，大气湿度的增加预计会加剧极端降水。然而，极端降水对温度的敏感性（EPS）是复杂的存在减少或钩形缩放，和潜在的物理机制仍然不清楚。在这里，通过使用大气再分析和气候模式预测，我们提出了EPS的物理分解为热力学和动力学分量（即，大气湿度和垂直上升速度的影响）在全球范围内的历史和未来的气候。与以前的预期不同，我们发现热力学并不总是有助于降水强化，直减率效应和压力分量部分抵消了正EPS。未来EPS预测中的大异常（下四分位数和上四分位数分别为-1.9%/°C和8.0%/°C）是由上升气流强度的变化引起的（即，动力分量），与海洋上的正异常和陆地上的负异常形成对比。这些发现揭示了大气热力学和动力学对EPS的抵消作用，并强调了通过将热力学效应分解为更详细的术语来理解降水极端的重要性。本研究将极端降水标度分为热力学和动力学两个分量，并进一步将热力学效应分解为更详细的术语，以揭示气候变暖下极端降水的物理机制。
Increasing atmospheric moisture content is expected to intensify precipitation extremes under climate warming. However, extreme precipitation sensitivity (EPS) to temperature is complicated by the presence of reduced or hook-shaped scaling, and the underlying physical mechanisms remain unclear. Here, by using atmospheric reanalysis and climate model projections, we propose a physical decomposition of EPS into thermodynamic and dynamic components (i.e., the effects of atmospheric moisture and vertical ascent velocity) at a global scale in both historical and future climates. Unlike previous expectations, we find that thermodynamics do not always contribute to precipitation intensification, with the lapse rate effect and the pressure component partly offsetting positive EPS. Large anomalies in future EPS projections (with lower and upper quartiles of −1.9%/°C and 8.0%/°C) are caused by changes in updraft strength (i.e., the dynamic component), with a contrast of positive anomalies over oceans and negative anomalies over land areas. These findings reveal counteracting effects of atmospheric thermodynamics and dynamics on EPS, and underscore the importance of understanding precipitation extremes by decomposing thermodynamic effects into more detailed terms. This study attributes extreme precipitation scaling into thermodynamic versus dynamic components and further decomposes the thermodynamic effects into more detailed terms to reveal the physics of extreme precipitation under climate warming.
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