Spatiotemporal reconstruction and transmission dynamics during the 2016-17 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Italy.
Spatiotemporal reconstruction and transmission dynamics during the 2016-17 H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in Italy.
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DOI：
10.1111/tbed.13420
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发表时间：
2021-01
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Marangon S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Harvey WT;Mulatti P;Fusaro A;Scolamacchia F;Zecchin B;Monne I;Marangon S
有效控制家禽疾病需要了解促进病毒出现和传播的传播动力学。2016-17年，意大利经历了由高致病性A（H5 N8）病毒引起的严重禽流感疫情，影响了约270万只家禽的家庭场所，主要是在家禽养殖场密度最高的东北部地区（伦巴第，艾米利亚-罗马涅和韦内托）。我们在贝叶斯系统发育框架内对遗传、时空和宿主数据进行综合分析。使用连续和离散的地理学，我们估计的位置负责的流行病的传播和持续的运动。从这些分析中获得的关于各区域间传播率的信息可用于评估控制措施是否成功。使用基于国内病例之间的遗传时间距离的方法，我们推断存在神秘的野鸟介导的传播，这些信息可用于补充现有的流行病学方法，以区分国内人群中的传播与野生动物-国内界面的入侵，这是兽医流行病学中的一个常见挑战。对疫情的时空重建揭示了病毒运动的高度偏斜分布，其中短距离局部运动的比例很高，偶尔会出现与野鸟相关的长距离传播事件。我们还展示了如何使用这种推断来识别人类介导的运动的可能实例，其中遗传连锁的国内病例之间的距离异常高。
Effective control of avian diseases in domestic populations requires understanding of the transmission dynamics facilitating viral emergence and spread. In 2016–17, Italy experienced a significant avian influenza epidemic caused by a highly pathogenic A(H5N8) virus, which affected domestic premises housing around 2.7 million birds, primarily in the north‐eastern regions with the highest density of poultry farms (Lombardy, Emilia‐Romagna and Veneto). We perform integrated analyses of genetic, spatiotemporal and host data within a Bayesian phylogenetic framework. Using continuous and discrete phylogeography, we estimate the locations of movements responsible for the spread and persistence of the epidemic. The information derived from these analyses on rates of transmission between regions through time can be used to assess the success of control measures. Using an approach based on phylogenetic–temporal distances between domestic cases, we infer the presence of cryptic wild bird‐mediated transmission, information that can be used to complement existing epidemiological methods for distinguishing transmission within the domestic population from incursions across the wildlife–domestic interface, a common challenge in veterinary epidemiology. Spatiotemporal reconstruction of the epidemic reveals a highly skewed distribution of virus movements with a high proportion of shorter distance local movements interspersed with occasional long‐distance dispersal events associated with wild birds. We also show how such inference be used to identify possible instances of human‐mediated movements where distances between phylogenetically linked domestic cases are unusually high.
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影响因子：
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作者：
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