Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation
Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation
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发达国家和发展中国家对历史气候变化和二氧化碳减排的责任
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1203282109
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发表时间：
2012-07
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Dong, Wenjie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fu, Congbin;Ye, Duzheng;Xu, Guanhua;Dong, Wenjie
2010年11月，在坎昆举行的联合国气候变化框架公约会议上，各国元首达成了一项协议，目标是将全球气温相对于工业化前水平的上升幅度限制在2 °C以内。他们认识到，未来的长期变暖主要受到人为温室气体累积排放量的制约，需要大幅度削减全球排放量，必须采取基于公平的行动来实现这一目标。然而，各国之间关于减排的谈判越来越困难，部分原因是关于持续升温的责任的争论。两个地球系统模式（NCAR/CESM和BNU-ESM）的模拟表明，到2005年，发达国家对全球气温上升、上层海洋变暖和海冰减少的贡献约为60- 80%，发展中国家约为20- 40%。在坎昆做出的承诺将持续到2100年，这将导致全球气温上升相对于正常情况有所下降，发达国家和发展中国家分别贡献1/3-2/3（CESM 33- 67%，BNU-ESM 35-65%）。为了防止2100年气温上升2 °C或更多，有必要以更雄心勃勃的减缓努力来填补这一差距。
At the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference in Cancun, in November 2010, the Heads of State reached an agreement on the aim of limiting the global temperature rise to 2 °C relative to preindustrial levels. They recognized that long-term future warming is primarily constrained by cumulative anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, that deep cuts in global emissions are required, and that action based on equity must be taken to meet this objective. However, negotiations on emission reduction among countries are increasingly fraught with difficulty, partly because of arguments about the responsibility for the ongoing temperature rise. Simulations with two earth-system models (NCAR/CESM and BNU-ESM) demonstrate that developed countries had contributed about 60–80%, developing countries about 20–40%, to the global temperature rise, upper ocean warming, and sea-ice reduction by 2005. Enacting pledges made at Cancun with continuation to 2100 leads to a reduction in global temperature rise relative to business as usual with a 1/3–2/3 (CESM 33–67%, BNU-ESM 35–65%) contribution from developed and developing countries, respectively. To prevent a temperature rise by 2 °C or more in 2100, it is necessary to fill the gap with more ambitious mitigation efforts.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Santer, BD;Wehner, MF;Brüggemann, W
通讯作者：
Brüggemann, W
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Frank, David C.;Esper, Jan;Joos, Fortunat
通讯作者：
Joos, Fortunat
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2010-09
期刊：
European Economics: Agriculture
影响因子：
--
作者：
G. Davies
通讯作者：
G. Davies
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Den Elzen, M;Schaeffer, M
通讯作者：
Schaeffer, M
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Gent, Peter R.;Danabasoglu, Gokhan;Zhang, Minghua
通讯作者：
Zhang, Minghua