Breeding season management is unlikely to improve population viability of a data-deficient migratory species in decline
Breeding season management is unlikely to improve population viability of a data-deficient migratory species in decline
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繁殖季节管理不太可能改善数据缺乏的迁徙物种的种群生存能力
DOI：
10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110104
复制
发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Zipkin, Elise F.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Davis, Kayla L.;Saunders, Sarah P.;Beilke, Stephanie;Ford, Erin Rowan;Fuller, Jennifer;Landgraf, Ava;Zipkin, Elise F.
面对持续的环境变化，保护工作面临的一个主要挑战是制定有效的方法来减轻种群数量的下降。对于迁徙物种而言，在种群流动性较低的平稳期（如繁殖季节）实施管理往往更为可行。但是，这种管理战略只有在目标人口比率（例如生殖比率）对人口增长作出重大贡献的情况下才能取得成功。因此，需要评估人口增长率对人口参数变化的敏感性，以确定最有效的保护策略。对于数量少且数量减少的人口来说尤其如此，在当前和未来的环境变化下，这些人口需要采取有针对性的紧急行动，以减缓人口减少。在这里，我们使用了一个耦合的综合种群模型-贝叶斯种群活力分析（IPM-BPVA）来估计在气候和管理相关变化的背景下，数据不足的美国中西部黑燕鸥种群数量下降的人口比率和种群活力。我们发现，目前在繁殖季节的保护努力不太可能扭转过去十年观察到的下降趋势（从2013年的平均307对繁殖对到2022年的53对）。相反，根据气候情景，与没有额外管理或以其他比率为目标的管理相比，旨在提高成人存活率的干预措施预计将使当地灭绝概率降低30 - 46%。我们的研究结果强调了在迁徙和非繁殖期加强对迁徙物种管理的重要性，与繁殖期相比，这两个时期占年周期的比例要大得多，而且通常风险更大。
A major challenge in conservation is developing effective approaches to mitigate population declines in the face of ongoing environmental change. For migratory species, it is often more feasible to implement management during periods of stationarity, like the breeding season, when populations are less mobile. However, such management strategies are only successful if the demographic rates targeted (e.g., reproductive rates) contribute substantively to population growth. Thus, evaluation of population growth rate sensitivity to variation in demographic parameters is needed to determine the most effective conservation strategies. This is especially true for small and declining populations that require targeted and urgent action to mitigate declines under current and future environmental change. Here, we used a coupled integrated population model-Bayesian population viability analysis (IPM-BPVA) to estimate demographic rates and population viability within the context of climatic and management-related changes for a data-deficient, declining population of black terns in the Upper Midwestern United States. We found that current conservation efforts during the breeding season are unlikely to reverse the declines observed within the last decade (from an average of 307 breeding pairs in 2013 to 53 in 2022). Rather, interventions aimed at increasing adult survival are projected to reduce local extinction probability by 30–46 % compared to no additional management or management targeting other rates, depending on the climate scenario. Our results highlight the importance of enhancing management efforts for migratory species during migration and nonbreeding periods, which constitute a much larger, and generally riskier, proportion of the annual cycle compared to the breeding season.
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影响因子：
4.8
作者：
H. Sandvik;K. Erikstad;R. Barrett;N. Yoccoz
通讯作者：
H. Sandvik;K. Erikstad;R. Barrett;N. Yoccoz
气候和土地利用变化对广泛分布的水鸟的相互影响。
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2656.13444
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
The Journal of animal ecology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Sarah P. Saunders;W. Piper;Matthew T. Farr;B. Bateman;N. Michel;Henrik Westerkam;Chad B. Wilsey
通讯作者：
Chad B. Wilsey
五大湖盆地南部沼泽鸟类栖息动态、趋势和保护：1996 年至 2013 年
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Douglas C. Tozer
通讯作者：
Douglas C. Tozer
评估响应距离，为燕鸥分期开发缓冲区
影响因子：
2.3
作者：
Melissa A. Althouse;J. Cohen;S. Karpanty;J. A. Spendelow;Kayla L. Davis;K. Parsons;Cristin F. Luttazi
通讯作者：
Cristin F. Luttazi
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
K. Lesley Szostek;Peter H. Becker
通讯作者：
K. Lesley Szostek;Peter H. Becker