Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data.
Predicting marsh vulnerability to sea-level rise using Holocene relative sea-level data.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-018-05080-0
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发表时间：
2018-07-12
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Shaw TA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Horton BP;Shennan I;Bradley SL;Cahill N;Kirwan M;Kopp RE;Shaw TA
潮汐沼泽是地球上脆弱的生态系统之一，如果未来相对海平面上升的速度超过沼泽垂直生长的能力，这些生态系统将退缩。在这里，我们评估的限制，沼泽脆弱性分析>780全新世重建的潮汐沼泽在英国的演变。这些重建包括海进（潮沼退缩）和海退（潮沼扩张）接触。沼泽退缩的可能性取决于全新世的RSLR速率，其变化范围为-7.7 ~15.2毫米/年。全新世记录表明，当RSLR速率≥7.1 mm/年时，沼泽退缩的可能性是扩张的9倍。耦合估计的沼泽撤退的概率与未来RSLR的预测表明，在二十一世纪的潮汐沼泽损失的主要风险。到2100年，英国所有地区在代表性集中路径（RCP）8.5下沼泽撤退的概率>80%，英格兰南部和东部地区到2040年实现这一概率。如果要减轻这种威胁，就必须量化潮汐沼泽生态系统对相对海平面上升的脆弱性。在这里，作者分析了英国的潮汐沼泽在全新世RSLR的反应，并预测在快速RSLR的情况下，到2100年，这个生态系统几乎不可避免的损失。
Tidal marshes rank among Earth’s vulnerable ecosystems, which will retreat if future rates of relative sea-level rise (RSLR) exceed marshes’ ability to accrete vertically. Here, we assess the limits to marsh vulnerability by analyzing >780 Holocene reconstructions of tidal marsh evolution in Great Britain. These reconstructions include both transgressive (tidal marsh retreat) and regressive (tidal marsh expansion) contacts. The probability of a marsh retreat was conditional upon Holocene rates of RSLR, which varied between −7.7 and 15.2 mm/yr. Holocene records indicate that marshes are nine times more likely to retreat than expand when RSLR rates are ≥7.1 mm/yr. Coupling estimated probabilities of marsh retreat with projections of future RSLR suggests a major risk of tidal marsh loss in the twenty-first century. All of Great Britain has a >80% probability of a marsh retreat under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 by 2100, with areas of southern and eastern England achieving this probability by 2040. Quantifying the vulnerability of tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is essential if the threat is to be mitigated. Here, the authors analyze the response of Great Britain’s tidal marshes to RSLR during the Holocene and predict an almost inevitable loss of this ecosystem by 2100 under rapid RSLR scenarios.
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