Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.
Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey's rainfall.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1716222114
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发表时间：
2017-11-28
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Emanuel K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Emanuel K
最近的飓风哈维、厄玛和玛丽亚等自然灾害凸显了对此类灾害风险进行定量估计的必要性。以统计为基础的风险评估因记录时间短、质量差而受到影响，就气象灾害而言，还因基本气候正在发生变化而受到影响。这项研究表明，最近开发的基于物理学的风险评估方法可以应用于评估极端飓风降雨的概率，允许定量评估受此类风暴影响的所有地点的飓风洪水风险，无论历史飓风记录的存在或质量。我们估计，对于当前和未来的气候，区域平均飓风雨的飓风哈维的大小，通过缩减大量的热带气旋从三个气候再分析和六个气候模型的年概率。对于德克萨斯州，我们估计，在1981-2000年期间，500 mm区域综合降雨量的年概率约为1%，根据政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）AR 5代表性浓度路径8.5，在2081-2100年期间将增加到18%。如果这种事件的频率在这两个时期之间呈线性增长，那么在2017年，年概率将为6%，自20世纪末以来增加了6倍。
Natural disasters such as the recent Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria highlight the need for quantitative estimates of the risk of such disasters. Statistically based risk assessment suffers from short records of often poor quality, and in the case of meteorological hazards, from the fact that the underlying climate is changing. This study shows how a recently developed physics-based risk assessment method can be applied to assessing the probabilities of extreme hurricane rainfall, allowing for quantitative assessment of hurricane flooding risks in all locations affected by such storms, regardless of the presence or quality of historical hurricane records. We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey’s magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.1301293110
发表时间：
2013-07-23
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Emanuel, Kerry A.
通讯作者：
Emanuel, Kerry A.
影响因子：
8
作者：
Emanuel, Kerry;Sundararajan, Ragoth;Williams, John
通讯作者：
Williams, John
影响因子：
8
作者：
Weitzman, Martin L.
通讯作者：
Weitzman, Martin L.
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
Zhu, Laiyin;Quiring, Steven M.;Emanuel, Kerry A.
通讯作者：
Emanuel, Kerry A.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Emanuel, Kerry
通讯作者：
Emanuel, Kerry