Valuating service loss of snow cover in Irtysh River Basin
Valuating service loss of snow cover in Irtysh River Basin
复制标题
评估额尔齐斯河流域积雪的服务损失
DOI：
10.1016/j.accre.2019.06.004
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发表时间：
2019-06
影响因子：
7.4
通讯作者：
Wang Xiaoming
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yang Yang;Wu Xue-Jiao;Liu Shi-Wei;Xiao Cun-De;Wang Xiaoming
积雪为干旱地区的人类福祉和社会经济发展提供了必要的资源和服务。由于气候变化导致的积雪变化引起了人们对其后果的担忧，因此迫切需要分析和了解其对人们从积雪中享受的利益的影响。这些可以从雪服务的经济价值的变化中得出，这是满足社会经济活动的需要。以额尔齐斯河流域1979 - 2016年积雪平均减少量为基础，运用经济评价方法，估算了流域积雪服务的年价值损失。考虑到积雪质量以每年-10.2 Mt（p< 0.05）或每年0.3%的速度减少，额尔齐斯河流域每年的服务损失目前高达1.96亿元人民币。其中，气候调节的服务损失贡献最大，约为8470万元。淡水服务的损失仅占约19%，这意味着如果只考虑供水，将大大低估服务损失。当我们面临气候变化导致服务下降的挑战时，这可能会导致决策偏颇，影响社会经济发展和环境保护的平衡，以实现长期的可持续性。
Snow cover provides essential resources and services for human well-being and socioeconomic development in arid areas. With the change in snow cover resulting from climate change that causes concerns about its consequences, there is a pressing need to analyze and understand its impact on the benefits that people has been enjoying from snow cover. These can be derived from the variation in economic value of snow services, that are demanded to meet socioeconomic activities. Based on the average decline mass of snow cover from 1979 to 2016 in Irtysh River Basin, we use the approach by applying economic evaluation to estimate the annual value loss of snow services. Considering the decreasing trend of snow cover mass at rates of −10.2 Mt per year (p< 0.05) or 0.3% per year, the annual service loss in Irtysh River Basin is currently worth up to CN¥196 million. Within it, the service loss of climate regulation contributes the most, or about CN¥84.7 million. The loss of freshwater service contributes only about 19%, implying that there would be a significant underestimation of service loss if only water supply would be considered. This may cause biased decision-making when we are facing the challenges of declining services as a result of climate change, impacting on the balancing of socioeconomic development and environment conservation for the sustainability over a long term.
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