The spatial heterogeneity between Japanese encephalitis incidence distribution and environmental variables in Nepal.
The spatial heterogeneity between Japanese encephalitis incidence distribution and environmental variables in Nepal.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0022192
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Baylis M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Impoinvil DE;Solomon T;Schluter WW;Rayamajhi A;Bichha RP;Shakya G;Caminade C;Baylis M
为了确定日本脑炎病毒(JE)在尼泊尔传播的潜在环境驱动因素，我们进行了一项生态学研究，以确定2005年尼泊尔乙脑发病率与地区层面的气候、农业和土地覆盖变量之间的空间关联。利用当地空间关联指标(LISA)分析了2004至2008年间日本脑炎病例的区级数据，以确定空间集群，并使用2005年的数据与气候、农业和土地覆盖变量建立空间滞后回归模型。2006年以前，尼泊尔偏远的西部和中西部地区有一大群日本脑炎病例。2005年后，尼泊尔乙型脑炎病例的分布发生了变化，在中部山区发现聚集性病例。与年平均气温和降水量相比，2005年疫情期间乙脑发病率与5月月平均气温和4月月平均总降水量的相关性更强。简约空间滞后回归模型显示，乙脑发病率与4月降水量呈显著负相关，乙脑发病率与灌溉面积呈显著正相关，乙脑发病率与草地覆盖率呈不显著负相关，乙脑发病率与猪人比呈单峰非显著相关。乙脑病例在2006年前集中在Terai，随后几年似乎转移到加德满都地区。2005年尼泊尔疫情期间乙脑病例的空间格局与降雨量少和灌溉土地百分比显著相关。尽管有有效的疫苗可用，但了解乙脑病毒传播的环境驱动因素仍然很重要，因为乙脑病毒传播的地方性循环不太可能完全中断。了解乙脑危险因素的空间动态可能有助于为尼泊尔免疫规划提供重要信息。
To identify potential environmental drivers of Japanese Encephalitis virus (JE) transmission in Nepal, we conducted an ecological study to determine the spatial association between 2005 Nepal JE incidence, and climate, agricultural, and land-cover variables at district level. District-level data on JE cases were examined using Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) analysis to identify spatial clusters from 2004 to 2008 and 2005 data was used to fit a spatial lag regression model with climate, agriculture and land-cover variables. Prior to 2006, there was a single large cluster of JE cases located in the Far-West and Mid-West terai regions of Nepal. After 2005, the distribution of JE cases in Nepal shifted with clusters found in the central hill areas. JE incidence during the 2005 epidemic had a stronger association with May mean monthly temperature and April mean monthly total precipitation compared to mean annual temperature and precipitation. A parsimonious spatial lag regression model revealed, 1) a significant negative relationship between JE incidence and April precipitation, 2) a significant positive relationship between JE incidence and percentage of irrigated land 3) a non-significant negative relationship between JE incidence and percentage of grassland cover, and 4) a unimodal non-significant relationship between JE Incidence and pig-to-human ratio. JE cases clustered in the terai prior to 2006 where it seemed to shift to the Kathmandu region in subsequent years. The spatial pattern of JE cases during the 2005 epidemic in Nepal was significantly associated with low precipitation and the percentage of irrigated land. Despite the availability of an effective vaccine, it is still important to understand environmental drivers of JEV transmission since the enzootic cycle of JEV transmission is not likely to be totally interrupted. Understanding the spatial dynamics of JE risk factors may be useful in providing important information to the Nepal immunization program.
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影响因子：
28.2
作者：
Bi, Peng;Zhang, Ying;Parton, Kevin A.
通讯作者：
Parton, Kevin A.
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Henrich, TJ;Hutchaleelaha, S;Gonzalez, JP
通讯作者：
Gonzalez, JP
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Landesman, William J.;Allan, Brian F.;Chase, Jonathan M.
通讯作者：
Chase, Jonathan M.
影响因子：
2
作者：
Kulldorff, Martin;Huang, Lan;Duczmal, Luiz
通讯作者：
Duczmal, Luiz
DOI：
10.1002/joc.1276
发表时间：
2005-12-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Hijmans, RJ;Cameron, SE;Jarvis, A
通讯作者：
Jarvis, A