The costs of Arctic infrastructure damages due to permafrost degradation
The costs of Arctic infrastructure damages due to permafrost degradation
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永久冻土退化导致北极基础设施损坏的成本
DOI：
10.1088/1748-9326/acab18
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Shiklomanov, Nikolay I
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Streletskiy, Dmitry A;Clemens, Sonia;Lanckman, Jean-Pierre;Shiklomanov, Nikolay I
气候变化对北极自然生态系统产生不利影响，并通过扰乱生存习惯、限制可获得性并使已建成的基础设施处于危险之中而威胁到北方社区。本文分析了北极多年冻土区多年冻土退化的空间模式，以及由于承载能力丧失和融化下沉对已建基础设施造成的相关风险。利用SSP245和585情景下三个耦合模型比较项目6模型的子集，我们估计了2015-2024年和2055-2064年这两个参考十年之间多年冻土承载能力和地面沉降的变化。利用公开可用的基础设施数据库，我们确定了公路、铁路、机场跑道和面临永久冻土退化风险的建筑物，并估计了与基础设施破坏相关的国别成本。结果表明，在SSP245情景下，29%的公路、23%的铁路和11%的建筑将受到永久冻土退化的影响，到本世纪中叶，北极国家将损失1820亿美元。在SSP585方案下，44%的道路、34%的铁路和17%的建筑物将受到影响，估计成本为2760亿美元，机场跑道将额外增加5亿美元。预计俄罗斯的成本负担最高，根据情况从115美元到1690亿美元不等。限制全球温室气体排放有可能显著降低北极国家，特别是俄罗斯的预期损害成本。本研究提出的方法强调了气候变化对基础设施的重大影响，有助于制定北极国家的适应和缓解战略。
Climate change has adverse impacts on Arctic natural ecosystems and threatens northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, and putting built infrastructure at risk. In this paper, we analyze spatial patterns of permafrost degradation and associated risks to built infrastructure due to loss of bearing capacity and thaw subsidence in permafrost regions of the Arctic. Using a subset of three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 models under SSP245 and 585 scenarios we estimated changes in permafrost bearing capacity and ground subsidence between two reference decades: 2015–2024 and 2055–2064. Using publicly available infrastructure databases we identified roads, railways, airport runways, and buildings at risk of permafrost degradation and estimated country-specific costs associated with damage to infrastructure. The results show that under the SSP245 scenario 29% of roads, 23% of railroads, and 11% of buildings will be affected by permafrost degradation, costing $182 billion to the Arctic states by mid-century. Under the SSP585 scenario, 44% of roads, 34% of railroads, and 17% of buildings will be affected with estimated cost of $276 billion, with airport runways adding an additional $0.5 billion. Russia is expected to have the highest burden of costs, ranging from $115 to $169 billion depending on the scenario. Limiting global greenhouse gas emissions has the potential to significantly decrease the costs of projected damages in Arctic countries, especially in Russia. The approach presented in this study underscores the substantial impacts of climate change on infrastructure and can assist to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies in Arctic states.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
V. Grebenets;D. Streletskiy;N. Shiklomanov
通讯作者：
N. Shiklomanov
阿拉斯加巴罗的传统因纽皮亚特冰窖 (SIĠḷUAQ)：特征、温度监测和分布
影响因子：
2
作者：
K. Nyland;A. Klene;Jerry Brown;N. Shiklomanov;F. Nelson;D. Streletskiy;K. Yoshikawa
通讯作者：
K. Yoshikawa
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
K. Nyland;N. Shiklomanov;D. Streletskiy;F. Nelson;A. Klene;A. Kholodov
通讯作者：
K. Nyland;N. Shiklomanov;D. Streletskiy;F. Nelson;A. Klene;A. Kholodov
气候变化和永久冻土退化对俄罗斯北极地区公共卫生和社会基础设施的风险
影响因子：
2.9
作者：
B. Revich;D. O. Eliseev;D. Shaposhnikov
通讯作者：
D. Shaposhnikov
影响因子：
2
作者：
N. Shiklomanov;D. Streletskiy;T. Swales;Vasily A. Kokorev
通讯作者：
N. Shiklomanov;D. Streletskiy;T. Swales;Vasily A. Kokorev