Current estimate of Down Syndrome population prevalence in the United States.

Current estimate of Down Syndrome population prevalence in the United States.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.jpeds.2013.06.013
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发表时间:
2013-10
期刊:
The Journal of pediatrics
影响因子:
--
通讯作者:
McCabe ER
McCabe ER
中科院分区:
其他
文献类型:
--
作者:
Presson AP;Partyka G;Jensen KM;Devine OJ;Rasmussen SA;McCabe LL;McCabe ER

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计算美国唐氏综合征人群患病率的可靠估计值。每年唐氏综合征婴儿的出生数量是通过将按母亲年龄列出的唐氏综合征出生患病率应用于美国疾病控制和预防中心提供的按母亲年龄列出的出生年份(1940-2008年)的数据来估计的。1968-2007年唐氏综合症患者的死亡证明数据可用。我们估计了2008年1月1日唐氏综合症患者的数量,使用基于年龄死亡比例的生命表方法。蒙特卡洛抽样用于为我们的估计值创建90%的不确定性区间(UI)。根据最近2年(2006-2007年)死亡证明数据中按年龄划分的死亡比例,我们估计2008年1月1日唐氏综合征的人群患病率约为250 700(90% UI,185 900-321 700)。该估计值对应于每10000人中有8.27人患有唐氏综合征(90%UI,6.14-10.62)。我们对唐氏综合症患病率的估计比仅基于当前出生患病率的估计低约25%-40%。这里提出的结果可以被认为是促进唐氏综合征患者的政策和服务规划的起点。
To calculate a reliable estimate of the population prevalence of Down syndrome in the US. The annual number of births of infants with Down syndrome were estimated by applying published birth prevalence rates of Down syndrome by maternal age to US data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the years for which births by maternal age were available (1940–2008). Death certificate data for persons with Down syndrome were available for the years 1968–2007. We estimated the number of people with Down syndrome on January 1, 2008, using a life table approach based on proportions of deaths by age. Monte Carlo sampling was used to create 90% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates. We estimated the January 1, 2008, population prevalence of Down syndrome as approximately 250 700 (90% UI, 185 900–321 700) based on proportions of deaths by age from the most recent 2 years (2006–2007) of death certificate data. This estimate corresponds to a prevalence of 8.27 people with Down syndrome per 10 000 population (90% UI, 6.14–10.62). Our estimate of Down syndrome prevalence is roughly 25%–40% lower than estimates based solely on current birth prevalence. The results presented here can be considered a starting point for facilitating policy and services planning for persons with Down syndrome.
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