A Prognostic Nomogram Incorporating Depth of Tumor Invasion to Predict Long-term Overall Survival for Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma With R0 Resection.
A Prognostic Nomogram Incorporating Depth of Tumor Invasion to Predict Long-term Overall Survival for Tongue Squamous Cell Carcinoma With R0 Resection.
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DOI：
10.7150/jca.24530
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发表时间：
2018
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
Wu P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chang B;He W;Ouyang H;Peng J;Shen L;Wang A;Wu P
目的：建立一个有用的预后诺模图来预测舌鳞状细胞癌（TSCC）患者R 0切除术后的长期总生存率。患者和方法：该诺模图是使用2000年1月1日至2007年12月31日中山大学肿瘤防治中心的235例TSCC患者的回顾性队列研究开发的。223例患者的独立数据集用于外部验证。应用多变量考克斯比例风险模型（后向选择;赤池信息标准）选择用于构建列线图的变量。使用受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线下面积（AUC）和校准图进行区分和校准。结果如下：使用临床相关变量的后向选择，浸润深度（风险比[HR]，3.55; P < 0.001），pN（HR，3.48; P = 0.01），年龄（HR，1.03; P < 0.01）和颈淋巴结清扫术（HR，0.53; P = 0.04）被选为生存的独立预测因素。因此建立了一个诺模图来预测R 0切除后TSCC患者的生存率。校准曲线表明，诺模图能够准确预测5年总生存率（OS）。此外，我们的数据显示，基于内部和外部验证的诺模图的AUC分别为0.78和0.71，显著优于第7 TNM分期（0.64/0.55）。结论：提出的诺模图可准确预测R 0切除的TSCC患者的5年OS。
Purpose: To establish a useful prognostic nomogram to predict long-term overall survival for patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma (TSCC) after R0 resection. Patients and Methods: The nomogram was developed using a retrospective cohort of 235 TSCC patients from Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between 1 January 2000 and 31 December 2007. An independent dataset of 223 patients was used for external validation. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model (backward selection; the Akaike information criteria) was applied to select variables for construction of the nomogram. Discrimination and calibration were performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) and calibration plots. Results: Using the backward selection of clinically-relevant variables, depth of invasion (hazard ratio [HR], 3.55; P < 0.001), pN (HR, 3.48; P = 0.01), age (HR, 1.03; P < 0.01) and neck dissection (HR, 0.53; P = 0.04) were selected as independent predictive factors of survival. A nomogram was thus established to predict survival of TSCC patients after R0 resection. The calibration curve demonstrated that the nomogram was able to accurately predict 5-year overall survival (OS). In addition, our data showed the AUC of the nomogram were 0.78 and 0.71 based on the internal and external validation, which were significantly better than the 7th TNM stage (0.64/0.55). Conclusion: The proposed nomogram resulted in accurate prognostic prediction of the 5-year OS for TSCC patients with R0 resection.
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DOI：
10.1186/1758-3284-2-9
发表时间：
2010-04-20
期刊：
Head & neck oncology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Jerjes W;Upile T;Petrie A;Riskalla A;Hamdoon Z;Vourvachis M;Karavidas K;Jay A;Sandison A;Thomas GJ;Kalavrezos N;Hopper C
通讯作者：
Hopper C
影响因子：
254.7
作者：
Siegel, Rebecca;Ma, Jiemin;Jemal, Ahmedin
通讯作者：
Jemal, Ahmedin
影响因子：
7.8
作者：
de Juan, Julia;Garcia, Jacinto;Leon, Xavier
通讯作者：
Leon, Xavier
影响因子：
4
作者：
Li Y;Zhao Z;Liu X;Ju J;Chai J;Ni Q;Ma C;Gao T;Sun M
通讯作者：
Sun M
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Hu, H.;Cheng, K. -L.;Shen, C. -Y.
通讯作者：
Shen, C. -Y.