Identifying robust strategies for assisted migration in a competitive stochastic metacommunity.
Identifying robust strategies for assisted migration in a competitive stochastic metacommunity.
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DOI：
10.1111/cobi.13736
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发表时间：
2021-12
影响因子：
6.3
通讯作者：
Baskett, Marissa L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Backus, Gregory A.;Baskett, Marissa L.
关键词：
协助迁移（AM）是物种超越其历史范围，迁移到未来气候变化下预计更适合的地点。然而，如果在决策、气候和与接受生态社区的相互作用方面存在高度不确定性，搬迁人口可能无法在其捐助社区建立。为了量化在不同管理场景下AM的持续性收益和建立失败风险（例如，选择目标物种、迁移的种群比例和迁移的最佳位置），我们建立了一个随机的多种群模型来模拟随着温度的升高，多个物种在温度梯度上的繁殖、扩散和竞争。如果没有AM，当这些物种的种群规模较低、扩散时间较短、两极竞争较强时，它们很容易受到气候变化的影响。当迁移体现这些特征的物种时，AM在迁移一部分供体种群时最能增加物种的长期持久性，即使剩余种群非常小或迅速下降。这表明，留下一小部分种群可能是一种稳健的方法，允许管理人员重复AM，以防他们将物种转移到错误的地点和错误的时间，特别是当难以确定物种的最佳气候时。我们发现，AM最受益的物种与低扩散能力和受益最少的物种与窄的耐热性，AM增加灭绝的风险平均。虽然搬迁并没有影响我们的简单竞争模型中的非目标物种的持久性，研究人员将需要考虑一套更完整的社区相互作用，以全面了解入侵潜力。 文章影响声明：重新安置一小部分分散有限的人口，可以让管理人员在失败时重复协助迁移。
Assisted migration (AM) is the translocation of species beyond their historical range to locations that are expected to be more suitable under future climate change. However, a relocated population may fail to establish in its donor community if there is high uncertainty in decision‐making, climate, and interactions with the recipient ecological community. To quantify the benefit to persistence and risk of establishment failure of AM under different management scenarios (e.g., choosing target species, proportion of population to relocate, and optimal location to relocate), we built a stochastic metacommunity model to simulate several species reproducing, dispersing, and competing on a temperature gradient as temperature increases over time. Without AM, the species were vulnerable to climate change when they had low population sizes, short dispersal, and strong poleward competition. When relocating species that exemplified these traits, AM increased the long‐term persistence of the species most when relocating a fraction of the donor population, even if the remaining population was very small or rapidly declining. This suggests that leaving behind a fraction of the population could be a robust approach, allowing managers to repeat AM in case they move the species to the wrong place and at the wrong time, especially when it is difficult to identify a species’ optimal climate. We found that AM most benefitted species with low dispersal ability and least benefited species with narrow thermal tolerances, for which AM increased extinction risk on average. Although relocation did not affect the persistence of nontarget species in our simple competitive model, researchers will need to consider a more complete set of community interactions to comprehensively understand invasion potential. Article impact statement: Relocating a fraction of declining dispersal‐limited populations can allow managers to repeat assisted migration if it fails.
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DOI：
10.1146/annurev.es.03.110172.001125
发表时间：
1972-01-01
期刊：
Annual Rev Ecol Syst
影响因子：
--
作者：
Connell, J.H.
通讯作者：
Connell, J.H.
影响因子：
9.8
作者：
Blackburn TM;Essl F;Evans T;Hulme PE;Jeschke JM;Kühn I;Kumschick S;Marková Z;Mrugała A;Nentwig W;Pergl J;Pyšek P;Rabitsch W;Ricciardi A;Richardson DM;Sendek A;Vilà M;Wilson JR;Winter M;Genovesi P;Bacher S
通讯作者：
Bacher S
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Chesson, Peter;Kuang, Jessica J.
通讯作者：
Kuang, Jessica J.
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Lande, R
通讯作者：
Lande, R
影响因子：
5.7
作者：
McDonald-Madden, Eve;Baxter, Peter W. J.;Possingham, Hugh P.
通讯作者：
Possingham, Hugh P.