Atmospheric moisture variability and transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changsha City, Mainland China, 1991-2010.
Atmospheric moisture variability and transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Changsha City, Mainland China, 1991-2010.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pntd.0002260
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发表时间：
2013
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Zhang XX
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Xiao H;Tian HY;Cazelles B;Li XJ;Tong SL;Gao LD;Qin JX;Lin XL;Liu HN;Zhang XX
肾综合征出血热（HFRS）的传播受环境因素的影响。本研究旨在探讨1991-2010年长沙市大气湿度变化与肾综合征出血热（HFRS）传播的关系。应用小波分析方法对HFRS病例的月报告时间序列数据进行分析，以检测和量化HFRS的周期性。一个广义线性模型与泊松分布和对数链接模型被用来量化气候和HFRS病例之间的关系，强调湿度条件的重要性。1994 ~ 1999年存在3-4年的年际振荡和多年周期。HFRS发病率与湿度条件和多变量厄尔尼诺-南方涛动指数（MEI）有显著关联。特别是大气湿度对HFRS的传播有显著影响，HFRS年发病率与年降水量和年平均绝对湿度呈正相关。最终模型对HFRS的发生具有较好的预测精度，水分条件可用于疾病监测和风险管理，为该病的潜在流行提供预警。肾综合征出血热（HFRS）是由汉坦病毒引起的啮齿动物传染病，其特征是发热、出血、头痛、背痛、腹痛和急性肾损伤。目前，它在中国大陆所有31个省、自治区和大都市区流行，人类病例占全球病例总数的90%。宿主的感染率和种群动态被认为受到气候因素，特别是湿度的影响。一些研究发现，汉坦病毒在高湿度环境中的传播受到限制，以延长体外稳定性。在这里，我们提供的证据表明，HFRS的发病率与湿度条件，包括季节变化和年度情况，在长沙，中国大陆，1991-2010年。结果很可能表明，湿度不仅影响决定啮齿动物种群规模的食物来源的增长，从而影响HFRS的传播，而且还直接影响啮齿动物的活动和汉坦病毒的感染性。这些发现为理解HFRS传播的可能原因提供了见解，并可用于疾病监测和风险管理，以提供该疾病潜在流行的早期预警。
The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by environmental determinants. This study aimed to explore the association between atmospheric moisture variability and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) for the period of 1991–2010 in Changsha, China. Wavelet analyses were performed by using monthly reported time series data of HFRS cases to detect and quantify the periodicity of HFRS. A generalized linear model with a Poisson distribution and a log link model were used to quantify the relationship between climate and HFRS cases, highlighting the importance of moisture conditions. There was a continuous annual oscillation mode and multi-annual cycle around 3–4 years from 1994 to 1999. There was a significant association of HFRS incidence with moisture conditions and the Multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation Index (MEI). Particularly, atmospheric moisture has a significant effect on the propagation of HFRS; annual incidence of HFRS was positively correlated with annual precipitation and annual mean absolute humidity. The final model had good accuracy in forecasting the occurrence of HFRS and moisture condition can be used in disease surveillance and risk management to provide early warning of potential epidemics of this disease. Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodentborne disease caused by Hantaviruses, is characterized by fever, haemorrhage, headache, back pain, abdominal pain, and acute kidney injury. At present, it is endemic in all 31 provinces, autonomous regions, and metropolitan areas in mainland China where human cases account for 90% of the total global cases. Infection rates and population dynamics of hosts are thought to be influenced by climatic factors, especially humidity. Some studies have found that hantaviruses are limited in their spread to high-humidity environments for extended ex vivo stability. Here we provide the evidence that HFRS incidence was strongly associated with moisture conditions, including seasonal variation and annual situation, in Changsha, mainland China, 1991–2010. The results most likely indicate that moisture not only influences growth of food sources that determine rodent population size, thereby affecting the HFRS transmission, but also directly influences rodent activity and hantavirus infectivity. These findings offer insights in understanding possible causes of HFRS transmission, and can be used in disease surveillance and risk management to provide early warning of potential epidemics of this disease.
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影响因子：
15.8
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
7.7
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