Detecting deterrence from patrol data.
Detecting deterrence from patrol data.
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DOI：
10.1111/cobi.13222
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发表时间：
2019-06
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Keane A
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dobson ADM;Milner-Gulland EJ;Beale CM;Ibbett H;Keane A
非法捕杀野生动物对保护区造成的威胁主要通过护林员巡逻来应对，其目的是发现和阻止潜在的犯罪者。阻止偷猎是一项基本的保护目标，但其成就很难确定，特别是当主要信息来源是巡逻队自己的记录时，这些记录不可避免地包含偏见。最常见的威慑指标是每单位巡逻工作量 (CPUE) 与巡逻工作量 (CPUE-E) 检测到的非法活动图。我们设计了一个简单、机械的违法和执法模型，在该模型中，我们模拟了不同执法工作时间模式下的威慑以及犯罪频率的外生变化。 CPUE-E 图并不是可靠的威慑指标。然而，CPUE 相对于努力变化的变化图（ΔCPUE-ΔE）可靠地识别了威慑力，无论努力的时间分布或非法活动水平的任何外生变化如何，只要大致知道巡逻努力与随后犯罪者行为变化之间的时间滞后。 ΔCPUE-ΔE 图为监控巡逻效率提供了一个强大、简单的指标；概念上并不比基本的 CPUE-E 图更复杂；并且不需要专业知识或软件即可生产。我们的研究结果表明，需要考虑巡逻数据中的时间自相关性，并考虑适当的（和偷猎活动特定的）聚合间隔。它们还揭示了在这方面对威慑的理解的重要差距，特别是威慑发生的机制。在实际应用中，我们建议优先使用 ΔCPUE-ΔE 图而不是其他基本指标，并建议仅在存在明显的负斜率时才怀疑威慑作用。不同类型的非法活动不应分组在一起进行分析，特别是当其发生迹象在环境中的持续时间不同时。 文章影响陈述：可以通过对护林员巡逻数据应用相对简单的指标来强有力地评估保护执法的威慑效果。
The threat posed to protected areas by the illegal killing of wildlife is countered principally by ranger patrols that aim to detect and deter potential offenders. Deterring poaching is a fundamental conservation objective, but its achievement is difficult to identify, especially when the prime source of information comes in the form of the patrols’ own records, which inevitably contain biases. The most common metric of deterrence is a plot of illegal activities detected per unit of patrol effort (CPUE) against patrol effort (CPUE‐E). We devised a simple, mechanistic model of law breaking and law enforcement in which we simulated deterrence alongside exogenous changes in the frequency of offences under different temporal patterns of enforcement effort. The CPUE‐E plots were not reliable indicators of deterrence. However, plots of change in CPUE over change in effort (ΔCPUE‐ΔE) reliably identified deterrence, regardless of the temporal distribution of effort or any exogenous change in illegal activity levels as long as the time lag between patrol effort and subsequent behavioral change among offenders was approximately known. The ΔCPUE‐ΔE plots offered a robust, simple metric for monitoring patrol effectiveness; were no more conceptually complicated than the basic CPUE‐E plots; and required no specialist knowledge or software to produce. Our findings demonstrate the need to account for temporal autocorrelation in patrol data and to consider appropriate (and poaching‐activity‐specific) intervals for aggregation. They also reveal important gaps in understanding of deterrence in this context, especially the mechanisms by which it occurs. In practical applications, we recommend the use of ΔCPUE‐ΔE plots in preference to other basic metrics and advise that deterrence should be suspected only if there is a clear negative slope. Distinct types of illegal activity should not be grouped together for analysis, especially if the signs of their occurrence have different persistence times in the environment. Article impact statement: Deterrent effects of conservation law enforcement may be robustly assessed by applying relatively simple metrics to ranger patrol data.
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