Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa.
Impact of an accelerated melting of Greenland on malaria distribution over Africa.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-021-24134-4
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发表时间：
2021-06-25
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Caminade C
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chemison A;Ramstein G;Tompkins AM;Defrance D;Camus G;Charra M;Caminade C
关于未来气候变化对疾病影响的研究大多集中在标准的代表性浓度路径气候变化情景。这些情景没有考虑到气候系统的非线性动力学。冰盖可能迅速融化，影响气候，进而影响社会。在这里，我们利用皮埃尔·西蒙·拉普拉斯研究所气候模拟驱动的几种疟疾模型，研究了格陵兰岛冰盖快速融化对非洲气候和疟疾传播的额外影响。结果表明，我们的融化情景可以缓和模拟的东非疟疾风险的增加，由于冷却和干燥的影响，导致西非疟疾传播风险的最大降低，并推动与非洲雨带显著南移相关的南部非洲疟疾的出现。我们认为，在未来的公共卫生和农业气候变化风险评估中，应该进一步调查这种冰盖融化的影响。由于冰盖融化而向海洋释放的淡水可能会影响气候敏感疾病的分布。在这里，这组作者表明，格陵兰岛冰盖的快速融化可能会导致非洲南部出现疟疾，而西非的传播风险可能会下降。
Studies about the impact of future climate change on diseases have mostly focused on standard Representative Concentration Pathway climate change scenarios. These scenarios do not account for the non-linear dynamics of the climate system. A rapid ice-sheet melting could occur, impacting climate and consequently societies. Here, we investigate the additional impact of a rapid ice-sheet melting of Greenland on climate and malaria transmission in Africa using several malaria models driven by Institute Pierre Simon Laplace climate simulations. Results reveal that our melting scenario could moderate the simulated increase in malaria risk over East Africa, due to cooling and drying effects, cause a largest decrease in malaria transmission risk over West Africa and drive malaria emergence in southern Africa associated with a significant southward shift of the African rain-belt. We argue that the effect of such ice-sheet melting should be investigated further in future public health and agriculture climate change risk assessments. Release of freshwater into the oceans as a result of ice sheet melting could impact the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases. Here, the authors show that a rapid ice sheet melting in Greenland could cause an emergence of malaria in Southern Africa whilst transmission risks in West Africa may decline.
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