Living with water: Evolving adaptation preferences under increasing sea-level rise in Miami-Dade County, FL, USA
Living with water: Evolving adaptation preferences under increasing sea-level rise in Miami-Dade County, FL, USA
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与水共存：美国佛罗里达州迈阿密戴德县在海平面上升的情况下不断变化的适应偏好
DOI：
10.1016/j.crm.2023.100574
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Mach, Katharine J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Seeteram, Nadia A.;Anderson, Elizabeth P.;Bhat, Mahadev;Grove, Kevin;Sanders, Brett F.;Schubert, Jochen E.;Hasan, Farrah;Mach, Katharine J.
对于家庭对海平面上升加剧和相关洪水的反应，尤其是居民何时可能考虑搬迁，存在很大的不确定性。了解不同能力的社区对就地适应相对于气候流动性的偏好如何随时间演变，有助于确定适合一系列社区需求的政策解决方案。我们对美国佛罗里达州迈阿密-戴德县居民的40次访谈和597份调查回复进行了分析，迈阿密-戴德县是一个与洪水相关的风险很大且不断增加的地区，与气候迁移性有关的担忧正在浮现。我们将描述长期洪水和1%年一遇洪水的新洪水风险模型与海平面上升下的街道细节相结合，与采访和调查数据相结合，揭示了时空风险的多样性。总体而言，我们发现，在所有参与调查的受访者中，高达75%的人在最近几年经历过基于降水的洪水，洪水泛滥的“新常态”已经在重塑当前的搬迁决定。然而，高达57%的受访者倾向于原地适应而不是搬走，这突显了全社会对长期适应的承诺的必要性。社会经济压力主导了采访和调查受访者对气候流动性的考虑，引发了对社会不公平流动性结果的气候正义担忧。对不同的气候流动性压力和适应偏好的审查增加了对正在重塑今天的沿海社区的变化的了解，以指导未来更公平的社会适应。
Great uncertainty exists about household responses to intensifying sea-level rise and related flooding, especially about when residents may consider relocation. Understanding how preferences for in-situ adaptation versus climate mobility evolve through time across communities with varying capacities can help identify policy solutions suited to a range of community needs. We present an analysis of 40 interviews and 597 survey responses from residents of Miami-Dade County, FL, USA—an area of substantial and increasing flood-related risk where concerns related to climate mobilities are emerging. We integrate new flood hazard models depicting chronic inundation and 1%-annual-chance flooding with street-level detail under increasing sea-level rise, which when combined with the interview and survey data reveal the multiplicities of spatiotemporal risk. Overall, we find that up to 75% of all participating respondents have experienced precipitation-based flooding in recent years, and “new normal” experiences of inundation are already reshaping current decisions to move. However, up to 57% of survey respondents preferred in-situ adaptations over moving away, highlighting a need for society-wide commitments to long-term adaptation. Socioeconomic pressures dominated climate mobility considerations among interview and survey respondents, raising climate justice concerns over socially inequitable mobility outcomes. Examinations of differential climate mobility pressures and preferences for adaptation increase understanding of the transformations reshaping coastal communities today to guide more equitable societal adaptations in the future.
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