Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir.
Endemic and epidemic dynamics of cholera: the role of the aquatic reservoir.
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-1-1
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发表时间：
2001
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Codeço CT
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Codeço CT
在过去的几十年里，随着霍乱流行成为一个世界性的健康问题，对霍乱流行病学的关注增加了。对霍乱弧菌与宿主和环境中其他生物相互作用的详细研究表明，霍乱动力学比以前认为的要复杂得多。在这里，我制定了霍乱流行病学的数学模型，其中包括环境水库的霍乱弧菌。目的是探讨水生水库对地方性霍乱持续存在的作用，并确定流行性和地方性霍乱发展的最低条件。霍乱在一个社区的繁殖率是由社会和环境因素的产物决定的。水库的重要性取决于社区的卫生条件。接触率的季节性变化迫使霍乱暴发形成周期性模式，如在一些霍乱流行社区所观察到的那样。霍乱模型的进一步发展需要更好地了解霍乱弧菌的生态学和流行病学。我们需要估计流行人群中霍乱弧菌感染的流行率，以及更好地描述剂量和毒力之间的关系。
In the last decades, attention to cholera epidemiology increased, as cholera epidemics became a worldwide health problem. Detailed investigation of V. cholerae interactions with its host and with other organisms in the environment suggests that cholera dynamics is much more complex than previously thought. Here, I formulate a mathematical model of cholera epidemiology that incorporates an environmental reservoir of V. cholerae. The objective is to explore the role of the aquatic reservoir on the persistence of endemic cholera as well as to define minimum conditions for the development of epidemic and endemic cholera. The reproduction rate of cholera in a community is defined by the product of social and environmental factors. The importance of the aquatic reservoir depends on the sanitary conditions of the community. Seasonal variations of contact rates force a cyclical pattern of cholera outbreaks, as observed in some cholera-endemic communities. Further development on cholera modeling requires a better understanding of V. cholerae ecology and epidemiology. We need estimates of the prevalence of V. cholerae infection in endemic populations as well as a better description of the relationship between dose and virulence.
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影响因子：
5
作者：
Franco, AA;Fix, AD;Morris, JG
通讯作者：
Morris, JG
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Colwell, RR
通讯作者：
Colwell, RR
影响因子：
13.6
作者：
Utsalo, SJ;Eko, FO;Asindi, AA
通讯作者：
Asindi, AA
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.97.4.1438
发表时间：
2000-02-15
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Lobitz, B;Beck, L;Colwell, R
通讯作者：
Colwell, R
DOI：
10.1016/0035-9203(90)90345-f
发表时间：
1990-05-01
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
ISLAM, MS;DRASAR, BS;BRADLEY, DJ
通讯作者：
BRADLEY, DJ