Epidemics, pandemics, and social conflict: Lessons from the past and possible scenarios for COVID-19.

Epidemics, pandemics, and social conflict: Lessons from the past and possible scenarios for COVID-19.
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DOI:
10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105629
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发表时间:
2021-11
期刊:
影响因子:
6.9
通讯作者:
Zaveri ED
Zaveri ED
中科院分区:
经济学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Jedwab R;Khan AM;Russ J;Zaveri ED

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自新冠疫情爆发以来,人们对了解历史上以及近期的传染病和大流行病(从古代的瘟疫到埃博拉等现代疫情)的经济和社会动态重新产生了兴趣。这些事件会对贫困和社会凝聚力之间的相互作用产生重大影响,即社会中的不同群体如何相互作用和合作以生存和繁荣。为此,本文从理论角度综述了过去的传染病和大流行病的流行病学及非流行病学特征如何决定社会对它们的反应,尤其关注导致少数群体(包括移民)成为替罪羊和遭受迫害的条件。我们讨论了现有理论以及历史和定量研究,并强调了传染病和大流行病可能导致较轻或较严重形式的替罪行为的情况。最后,我们总结了未来关于传染病、大流行病和社会冲突研究的重点,并讨论了新冠疫情可能产生的影响和政策启示。
Since COVID-19 broke out, there has been renewed interest in understanding the economic and social dynamics of historical and more recent epidemics and pandemics, from the plagues of Antiquity to modern-day outbreaks like Ebola. These events can have significant impacts on the interplay between poverty and social cohesion, i.e. how different groups in society interact and cooperate to survive and prosper. To that effect, this paper provides a theory-driven overview of how social responses to past epidemics and pandemics were determined by the epidemiological and non-epidemiological characteristics of these outbreaks, with a particular focus on the conditions giving rise to scapegoating and persecution of minority groups, including migrants. We discuss existing theories as well as historical and quantitative studies, and highlight the cases where epidemics and pandemics may lead to milder or more severe forms of scapegoating. Finally, we conclude with a summary of priorities for future research on epidemics, pandemics and social conflict and discuss the possible effects and policy implications of COVID-19.
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