Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model.
Reconstructing the 2003/2004 H3N2 influenza epidemic in Switzerland with a spatially explicit, individual-based model.
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DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-11-115
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发表时间：
2011-05-09
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Scholz RW
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Smieszek T;Balmer M;Hattendorf J;Axhausen KW;Zinsstag J;Scholz RW
流感传播的模拟模型在大流行防范中发挥着重要作用。然而，由于除了2009年相当温和的H1N1流感之外，世界几十年来没有面临严重的大流行，大流行性流感模型本质上是假设的，因此很难验证。我们的目标是重建最近在瑞士发生的季节性流感流行，并认为这是一个有前途的验证策略的流感传播模型。我们提出了一个空间上明确的，基于个人的模拟模型的流感传播。模拟模型基于（i）模拟人类旅行数据，（ii）人类接触模式数据和（iii）流感流行病学经验知识。为了验证模型，我们将模拟结果与经验知识进行比较，包括（i）流行曲线的形状，总体感染率和繁殖数量，（ii）年龄相关的感染率和感染时间，（iii）空间模式。该模拟模型能够再现瑞士2003/2004年H3 N2流行曲线的形状，并生成总体感染率（14.9%）和繁殖数（1.2和1.3之间），这对于季节性流感流行是现实的。该模型还反映了经验数据中观察到的年龄和空间模式：5至14岁儿童的感染率最高，疾病沿沿着主要传播轴从西向东传播。我们发现，通过季节性流感爆发数据来挑战流感传播模拟模型的有效性是可能的，也是有希望的。如果能够重现季节性流感爆发，大流行传播的模拟模型将获得更高的可信度。为了更可靠地模拟季节性流感，补充哨点信息的血清学数据将是有益的。
Simulation models of influenza spread play an important role for pandemic preparedness. However, as the world has not faced a severe pandemic for decades, except the rather mild H1N1 one in 2009, pandemic influenza models are inherently hypothetical and validation is, thus, difficult. We aim at reconstructing a recent seasonal influenza epidemic that occurred in Switzerland and deem this to be a promising validation strategy for models of influenza spread. We present a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model of influenza spread. The simulation model bases upon (i) simulated human travel data, (ii) data on human contact patterns and (iii) empirical knowledge on the epidemiology of influenza. For model validation we compare the simulation outcomes with empirical knowledge regarding (i) the shape of the epidemic curve, overall infection rate and reproduction number, (ii) age-dependent infection rates and time of infection, (iii) spatial patterns. The simulation model is capable of reproducing the shape of the 2003/2004 H3N2 epidemic curve of Switzerland and generates an overall infection rate (14.9 percent) and reproduction numbers (between 1.2 and 1.3), which are realistic for seasonal influenza epidemics. Age and spatial patterns observed in empirical data are also reflected by the model: Highest infection rates are in children between 5 and 14 and the disease spreads along the main transport axes from west to east. We show that finding evidence for the validity of simulation models of influenza spread by challenging them with seasonal influenza outbreak data is possible and promising. Simulation models for pandemic spread gain more credibility if they are able to reproduce seasonal influenza outbreaks. For more robust modelling of seasonal influenza, serological data complementing sentinel information would be beneficial.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Eichner M;Schwehm M;Duerr HP;Brockmann SO
通讯作者：
Brockmann SO
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Eichner M;Schwehm M;Wilson N;Baker MG
通讯作者：
Baker MG
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Chowell, G.;Miller, M. A.;Viboud, C.
通讯作者：
Viboud, C.
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
du Prel, Jean-Baptist;Puppe, Wolfram;Schmitt, Heinz-Josef
通讯作者：
Schmitt, Heinz-Josef
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
COUCH, RB;DOUGLAS, RG;KASEL, JA
通讯作者：
KASEL, JA