Spatiotemporal implications of flooding on relocation risk in rural and urban coastal municipalities
Spatiotemporal implications of flooding on relocation risk in rural and urban coastal municipalities
复制标题
洪水对沿海农村和城市搬迁风险的时空影响
DOI：
10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106754
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
7.1
通讯作者：
Irish, J.L.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bukvic, A.;Mitchell, A.;Shao, Y.;Irish, J.L.
关于沿海灾害的研究预测，慢性和间歇性洪灾对人口稠密的沿海地区会产生严重的不利影响。尽管越来越多的证据表明预计会有洪水风险，但许多沿海社区仍然没有适应。所观察到的物理影响科学与适应决策之间的脱节，部分反映了利益攸关方无法预见这些影响对其管辖范围内的社会经济系统和建筑环境的影响。这种惰性在关于洪灾造成的流离失所和重新安置的论述中尤为明显。缺乏关于洪水对社区属性和服务的直接和间接影响的知识，这些属性和服务有助于搬迁决策。这项研究在时空尺度上全面评估了对社会经济稳定、生计和生活质量至关重要的市政特征的洪水暴露。因此，与仅关注直接淹没影响的方法相比，它使用了一种更微妙的方法来评估搬迁风险。它衡量了土地利用、土地覆盖以及社会文化和经济方面的洪水暴露，这些方面是选定的农村和城市地区搬迁的重要驱动因素。该方法使用50年的泛滥平原来描绘人口稠密的沿海地区，这些地点面临2%的年超过概率(AEP)风暴潮预测，根据2030、2060和2090年海平面上升(SLR)情景进行了调整。然后评估了这次洪灾对农村(美国马里兰州多尔切斯特县和塔尔博特县)和城市(汉普顿、诺福克、朴茨茅斯和弗吉尼亚州弗吉尼亚海滩)不同类型的土地使用和关键社会经济资产的潜在影响。结果表明，一些城市用地，如开放空间、军事和混合用途，以及农村居民区和商业区，可能会经历更多的洪水。在选定的社区之间，基线洪水暴露量以及预期的洪水暴露率和未来的速度也有显著差异，这对搬迁规划有重大影响。
The research on coastal hazards predicts substantial adverse impacts of chronic and episodic flooding on populated coastal areas. Despite the growing evidence about anticipated flood risks, many coastal communities are still not adapting. The observed disconnect between science on physical impacts and adaptation decision-making in part reflects stakeholders’ inability to envision the implications of these impacts on socioeconomic systems and the built environment in their jurisdictions. This inertia is particularly apparent in the discourse on flood-driven displacement and relocation. There is a lack of knowledge about direct and indirect flood impacts on community attributes and services that contribute to relocation decision-making. This study holistically evaluates the flood exposure on municipal features vital for socioeconomic stability, livelihoods, and quality of life across spatiotemporal scales. As such, it uses a more nuanced approach to relocation risk assessment than those solely focused on direct inundation impacts. It measures flood exposure of land use, land cover, and sociocultural and economic dimensions that are important drivers of relocation in selected rural and urban areas. The approach uses a 50-year floodplain to delineate populated coastal locations exposed to 2% Annual Exceedance Probability (AEP) storm surge projections adjusted for 2030, 2060, and 2090 sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. It then evaluates the potential impacts of this flood exposure on different types of land uses and critical socioeconomic assets in rural (Dorchester and Talbot Counties, Maryland, USA) and urban (Cities of Hampton, Norfolk, Portsmouth, and Virginia Beach, Virginia, USA) settings. The results show that some urban land uses, such as open space, military and mixed-use, and rural residential and commercial areas, might experience significantly more flooding. There are also notable differences in the baseline flood exposure and the anticipated rate and acceleration in the future among selected communities with significant implications for relocation planning.
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影响因子：
--
作者：
Richard J. T. Klein;R. Nicholls;S. Ragoonaden;M. Capobianco;J. Aston;E. N. Buckley
通讯作者：
Richard J. T. Klein;R. Nicholls;S. Ragoonaden;M. Capobianco;J. Aston;E. N. Buckley
农村与城市对沿海洪水的看法：来自美国大西洋中部社区的见解
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
A. Bukvic;J. Harrald
通讯作者：
J. Harrald
洪水风险的社会相关性：美国城乡连续体的变化
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
D. Rhubart;Yue Sun
通讯作者：
Yue Sun
气候变化的法定规划
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
W. Butler;T. Holmes;Zechariah Lange
通讯作者：
Zechariah Lange
找出搬迁措辞使用中的差距和不一致之处：健全搬迁政策和规划的先决条件
DOI：
10.1007/s11027-013-9532-5
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
4
作者：
A. Bukvic
通讯作者：
A. Bukvic