The Association of Ambient Temperature and Violent Crime.
The Association of Ambient Temperature and Violent Crime.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41598-017-06720-z
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发表时间：
2017-07-28
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Callaway J
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Tiihonen J;Halonen P;Tiihonen L;Kautiainen H;Storvik M;Callaway J
全球变暖是否会导致犯罪率和冲突率增加，这是有争议的，并且尚未提出环境温度与攻击性行为之间假定联系的因果神经生物学机制。这项研究表明，在1996-2013年期间，环境温度解释了芬兰暴力犯罪率10%的变化，相当于每摄氏度增加1.7%。环境温度也与罪犯和健康对照组外周5-羟色胺转运体密度的年际变化延迟一个月相关，而这本身与每月的暴力犯罪率密切相关。这表明，温度升高会调节多巴胺能的传播，这可能会增加冲动和一般人类活动水平，导致社会互动和暴力事件风险增加。总的来说，这些结果表明，环境温度对暴力犯罪发生的影响部分是通过负能量系统介导的，如果其他影响因素保持不变，平均温度升高2 °C将使非热带和非亚热带地区的暴力犯罪率增加3%以上。
It is controversial if global warming will result into increased crime and conflict rate, and no causal neurobiological mechanisms have been proposed for the putative association between ambient temperature and aggressive behavior. This study shows that during 1996–2013, ambient temperature explained 10% of variance in the violent crime rate in Finland, corresponding to a 1.7% increase/degree centigrade. Ambient temperature also correlated with a one month delay in circannual changes in peripheral serotonin transporter density among both offenders and healthy control subjects, which itself correlated strongly with the monthly violent crime rate. This suggests that rise in temperature modulates serotonergic transmission which may increase impulsivity and general human activity level, resulting into increase in social interaction and risk of violent incidents. Together, these results suggest that the effect of ambient temperature on occurrence of violent crime is partly mediated through the serotonergic system, and that a 2 °C increase in average temperatures would increase violent crime rates by more than 3% in non-tropical and non-subtropical areas, if other contributing factors remained constant.
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