Does population have a larger impact on carbon dioxide emissions than income? Evidence from a cross-regional panel analysis in China
Does population have a larger impact on carbon dioxide emissions than income? Evidence from a cross-regional panel analysis in China
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人口对二氧化碳排放的影响是否大于收入？
DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.035
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发表时间：
2016-10
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
Liu Yansui
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhou Yang;Liu Yansui
随着全球变暖的加剧，二氧化碳（CO2）等温室气体的积累引起了全球的高度关注。然而，关于人口因素和过程是否、如何以及在多大程度上影响碳排放的问题尚未得到充分解释，特别是在中国。本研究利用1990-2012年中国省级平衡面板数据，采用改进的STIRPAT模型，重新评估了人口和收入变化对中国能源相关CO2排放的影响。尽管此前大多数关于中国排放-人口/收入弹性的研究都得出了广泛的估计，但本研究表明，收入而非人口变化是中国二氧化碳排放增长的主要驱动力。城市化增加了能源消耗和排放，除了中国西部。年龄结构的变化对能源使用的影响在统计上并不显著，但却导致了全国排放量的增加，特别是在中国东部。缩小家庭规模并没有减少能源使用和排放，这表明提高住宅能源效率可能会减少排放。改变传统的经济增长方式，合理控制城市化速度，提高能源效率和产业结构升级可能是减轻中国人类活动对环境影响的必要条件。
As global warming intensifies, the accumulation of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases have attracted great global attention. However, questions regarding whether, how and to what extent demographic factors and processes affect carbon emissions have not yet been fully explained – particularly in China. This study used an improved STIRPAT model to reassess the impact of demographic and income changes on China’s energy-related CO2emissions at the national and regional levels using balanced provincial panel data from the 1990–2012 period. Whereas most previous studies of emission–population/income elasticity in China have yielded wide-ranging estimates, this study showed that income rather than demographic change has been the dominant driving force behind China’s growing CO2emissions. Urbanisation has increased energy consumption and emissions, except in western China. Changes in the age structure have had a statistically insignificant effect on energy use, but resulted in increased national emissions – particularly in eastern China. Shrinking household size did not reduce energy use and emissions, indicating that improved residential energy efficiency might reduce emissions. Changing the traditional mode of economic growth, reasonable controlling the pace of urbanisation, improving energy efficiency and upgrading industrial structures may yet be necessary to mitigate the environmental impact of human activities in China.
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