Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.
Global civil unrest: contagion, self-organization, and prediction.
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全球内乱：蔓延、自组织和预测。
DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0048596
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发表时间：
2012
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Braha D
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Braha D
内乱是人类集体动力的一种强大形式，导致了现代历史上社会的重大转型。对集体人类动力学的研究，包括集体攻击，一直是在建模和识别普遍行为模式的背景下进行大量讨论的焦点。与此相反，尚未探讨各国之间和长期的民间动乱活动是否有可能受到普遍机制的管理。本文分析了1919年至2008年期间170个国家的内乱记录。它表明，每年的骚乱事件的数量的分布是鲁棒再现的非线性，空间扩展的动力学模型，它反映了通过社会和通信网络连接的地理区域之间的民间骚乱的传播。研究结果还揭示了全球社会不稳定与自然灾害和流行病动态之间的相似性。
Civil unrest is a powerful form of collective human dynamics, which has led to major transitions of societies in modern history. The study of collective human dynamics, including collective aggression, has been the focus of much discussion in the context of modeling and identification of universal patterns of behavior. In contrast, the possibility that civil unrest activities, across countries and over long time periods, are governed by universal mechanisms has not been explored. Here, records of civil unrest of 170 countries during the period 1919–2008 are analyzed. It is demonstrated that the distributions of the number of unrest events per year are robustly reproduced by a nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical model, which reflects the spread of civil disorder between geographic regions connected through social and communication networks. The results also expose the similarity between global social instability and the dynamics of natural hazards and epidemics.
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影响因子：
3.2
作者：
Brueckner, Markus;Ciccone, Antonio
通讯作者：
Ciccone, Antonio
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Barabási, AL;Albert, R
通讯作者：
Albert, R
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Albert, R;Jeong, H;Barabási, AL
通讯作者：
Barabási, AL
影响因子：
8.6
作者：
Cohen, R;Erez, K;Havlin, S
通讯作者：
Havlin, S
DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0907998106
发表时间：
2009-12-08
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Burke, Marshall B.;Miguel, Edward;Lobell, David B.
通讯作者：
Lobell, David B.