FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.
FluTE, a publicly available stochastic influenza epidemic simulation model.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000656
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发表时间：
2010-01-29
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Longini IM Jr
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chao DL;Halloran ME;Obenchain VJ;Longini IM Jr
流行病的数学和计算机模型有助于我们理解传染病的传播以及控制或减轻它们所需的措施。为了帮助为未来的流感季节性流行或大流行做好准备，我们开发了一个新的流感在大规模人群中传播的随机模型。这个模型中的个体有现实的社会接触网络，传播和感染是基于当前对流感自然史的认识。该模型已经过校准，因此结果与1957/1958年亚洲A（H2 N2）和2009年大流行A（H1N1）流感病毒一致。我们提出的例子，这个模型可以用来研究在美国的流感流行的动态，并模拟如何减轻或延迟他们使用药物干预和社会距离措施。计算机模拟模型在为公共政策提供信息和评估大流行防备计划方面发挥着至关重要的作用。我们已经公开了该模型的源代码，以鼓励其使用和进一步开发。计算机模拟可以为社区预防流行病提供有价值的信息。这些模拟可用于研究各种干预策略在减少或延迟流行病高峰方面的有效性。我们已经为美国公开提供了一个详细的流感流行模拟器，以便其他人可以使用该软件来告知公共政策或根据其需要进行调整。
Mathematical and computer models of epidemics have contributed to our understanding of the spread of infectious disease and the measures needed to contain or mitigate them. To help prepare for future influenza seasonal epidemics or pandemics, we developed a new stochastic model of the spread of influenza across a large population. Individuals in this model have realistic social contact networks, and transmission and infections are based on the current state of knowledge of the natural history of influenza. The model has been calibrated so that outcomes are consistent with the 1957/1958 Asian A(H2N2) and 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza viruses. We present examples of how this model can be used to study the dynamics of influenza epidemics in the United States and simulate how to mitigate or delay them using pharmaceutical interventions and social distancing measures. Computer simulation models play an essential role in informing public policy and evaluating pandemic preparedness plans. We have made the source code of this model publicly available to encourage its use and further development. Computer simulations can provide valuable information to communities preparing for epidemics. These simulations can be used to investigate the effectiveness of various intervention strategies in reducing or delaying the peak of an epidemic. We have made a detailed influenza epidemic simulator for the United States publicly available so that others may use the software to inform public policy or adapt it to suit their needs.
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.0706849105
发表时间：
2008-03-25
影响因子：
11.1
作者：
Halloran, M. Elizabeth;Ferguson, Neil M.;Cooley, Philip
通讯作者：
Cooley, Philip
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Halloran, ME;Longini, IM;Struchiner, CJ
通讯作者：
Struchiner, CJ
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
ADDY, CL;LONGINI, IM;HABER, M
通讯作者：
HABER, M
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Halloran, ME;Longini, IM;Yang, Y
通讯作者：
Yang, Y
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
Becker, NG;Utev, S
通讯作者：
Utev, S