Time to licensure for driving among U.S. teens: Survival analysis of interval-censored survey data.
Time to licensure for driving among U.S. teens: Survival analysis of interval-censored survey data.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1080/15389588.2021.1939871
复制
发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Romano E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vaca FE;Li K;Gao X;Zagnoli K;Wang H;Haynie DL;Fell JC;Simons-Morton B;Romano E
拖延驾驶执照的新手司机可能会错过研究生驾驶执照(GDL)计划的安全好处，可能会使自己面临更高的撞车风险。获得许可的时间将他们获得独立交通工具的机会与未来与经济和教育相关的潜在机会联系在一起。这项研究的目的是探索时间来批准与青少年的种族/民族和GDL限制的联系。二次分析使用了下一代健康研究的所有七个年度评估，这是一项具有全国代表性的纵向研究，从10年级开始(N=2785；2009-2010学年)。数据是在美国公立/私立学校、大学、工作场所和其他环境中收集的。结果变量是间隔审查的执照发放时间(事件=获得驾驶执照)。自变量包括种族/民族和特定于州的GDL限制。协变量包括家庭富裕程度、父母教育、出生地、性别和都市性。采用比例风险(PH)模型进行区间截尾生存分析，在考虑复杂调查特征的情况下，采用逐步后向消去法拟合多变量模型。在PH模型中，风险比(HR)估计在所有时间点获得许可的可能性较大(&>1)或较小(<；1)。拉美裔、非裔美国人和非拉丁裔白人达到法定驾驶年龄后获得执照的时间中值分别为3.47岁、2.90岁和0.41岁。多变量PH模型显示，与非拉丁裔白人相比，拉丁裔在任何时候获得执照的可能性降低46%(HR=0.54，95%CI：0.35-0.72)，非裔美国人获得执照的可能性降低56%(HR=0.44，95%CI：0.32-0.56)。只有学习者最低年龄GDL限制与获得执照的时间相关。与居住在要求学习驾驶最低年龄为16岁的其他州相比，居住在要求学习驾驶最低年龄为≥16岁(HR=0.57，95%CI：0.16-0.98)的州的居民获得合法资格执照的可能性也降低了43%。拉美裔和非裔美国青少年平均在获得资格后大约三年才获得执照，而且比非拉丁裔白人晚得多。获得许可的时间与种族/民族和所需的最低学习许可年龄有关，这表明对不同种族/民族的青少年在许可、获得独立交通工具和接触GDL计划方面具有重要影响。
Novice drivers who delay in driving licensure may miss safety benefits of Graduate Driver Licensing (GDL) programs, potentially putting themselves at higher crash-risk. Time to licensure relates their access to independent transportation to potential future economic- and educational-related opportunities. The objective of this study was to explore time to licensure associations with teens’ race/ethnicity and GDL restrictions. Secondary analysis using all seven annual assessments of the NEXT Generation Health Study, a nationally representative longitudinal study starting with 10th grade (N=2785; 2009–2010 school year). Data were collected in U.S. public/private schools, colleges, workplaces, and other settings. The outcome variable was interval-censored time to licensure (event = obtained driving licensure). Independent variables included race/ethnicity and state-specific GDL restrictions. Covariates included family affluence, parent education, nativity, sex, and urbanicity. Proportional hazards (PH) models were conducted for interval-censored survival analysis based on stepwise backward elimination for fitting multivariate models with consideration of complex survey features. In the PH models, a hazard ratio (HR) estimates a greater (>1) or lesser (<1) likelihood of licensure at all timepoints. Median time to licensure after reaching legal driving age for Latinos, African Americans, and Non-Latino Whites was 3.47, 2.90, and 0.41 years respectively. Multivariate PH models showed that Latinos were 46% less likely (HR=0.54, 95%CI: 0.35–0.72) and African Americans were 56% less likely (HR=0.44, 95%CI: 0.32–0.56) to have obtained licensure at any time compared to Non-Latino Whites. Only learner minimum age GDL restriction was associated with time to licensure. Living in a state with a required learner driving minimum age of ≥16 years (HR=0.57, 95%CI: 0.16–0.98) also corresponded with 43% lower likelihood of licensure at legal eligibility compared to living in other states with a required learner driving minimum age of <16 years. Latinos and African American teens obtained their license approximately three years after eligibility on average, and much later than Non-Latino Whites. Time to licensure likelihood was associated with race/ethnicity and required minimum age of learner permit, indicating important implications for teens of different racial/ethnic groups in relation to licensure, access to independent transportation, and exposure to GDL programs.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
2.5
作者：
Fransen, Koos;Deruyter, Greet;De Maeyer, Philippe
通讯作者：
De Maeyer, Philippe
影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Masten, Scott V.;Foss, Robert D.;Marshall, Stephen W.
通讯作者：
Marshall, Stephen W.
影响因子：
2
作者：
McCartt, Anne T.;Teoh, Eric R.;Hellinga, Laurie A.
通讯作者：
Hellinga, Laurie A.
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Williams, Allan F.;McCartt, Anne T.;Sims, Laurel B.
通讯作者：
Sims, Laurel B.
影响因子：
4.1
作者：
Williams, Allan F.;Tefft, Brian C.;Grabowski, Jurek G.
通讯作者：
Grabowski, Jurek G.