Risk assessment for acute kidney injury and death among new COVID-19 positive adult patients without chronic kidney disease: retrospective cohort study among three US hospitals.

Risk assessment for acute kidney injury and death among new COVID-19 positive adult patients without chronic kidney disease: retrospective cohort study among three US hospitals.
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DOI:
10.1136/bmjopen-2021-053635
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发表时间:
2022-02-21
期刊:
影响因子:
2.9
通讯作者:
Lin X
Lin X
中科院分区:
医学3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Li D;Ren H;Varelmann DJ;Sarin P;Xu P;Wu D;Li Q;Lin X

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开发简单但具有临床信息的风险分层工具,使用新冠肺炎诊断中的一些顶级人口统计因素和生物标记物来预测急性肾损伤和死亡。回溯性队列分析,从2020年2月1日至5月28日进行随访。波士顿地区的3家教学医院、2家城市医院和1家社区医院。符合条件的患者至少18岁,在2020年2月1日至5月28日期间新冠肺炎检测呈阳性,并在新诊断新冠肺炎后30天内至少进行过两次血清肌酐测定。排除标准是患有慢性肾脏疾病或在新诊断为新冠肺炎的3个月内有急性肾损伤。从新的新冠肺炎诊断到AKI事件,到死亡事件的时间。3716例患者中,男性1855例(49.9%),平均年龄58.6岁(SD 19.2岁)。年龄、性别、白细胞、血红蛋白、血小板、C反应蛋白(CRP)和D-二聚体水平与AKI和/或死亡密切相关。我们使用这些变量创建了风险评分,预测了新的新冠肺炎诊断后3 天内急性心肌梗死和30天内死亡。预测3 内急性心肌梗死的曲线下面积为0.785(95%CI 0.758~0.813),预测30天内死亡的AUC为0.861(95%CI 0.843~0.878)。血红蛋白是AKI的最具预测性的成分,而年龄对死亡的预测性最强。使用所有研究变量的预测精度与使用简化分数的预测精度相似。使用年龄、性别、全血细胞计数、C反应蛋白和D-二聚体的简单风险评分可以高度预测AKI和死亡,并有助于简化和更好地指导临床决策。
To develop simple but clinically informative risk stratification tools using a few top demographic factors and biomarkers at COVID-19 diagnosis to predict acute kidney injury (AKI) and death. Retrospective cohort analysis, follow-up from 1 February through 28 May 2020. 3 teaching hospitals, 2 urban and 1 community-based in the Boston area. Eligible patients were at least 18 years old, tested COVID-19 positive from 1 February through 28 May 2020, and had at least two serum creatinine measurements within 30 days of a new COVID-19 diagnosis. Exclusion criteria were having chronic kidney disease or having a previous AKI within 3 months of a new COVID-19 diagnosis. Time from new COVID-19 diagnosis until AKI event, time until death event. Among 3716 patients, there were 1855 (49.9%) males and the average age was 58.6 years (SD 19.2 years). Age, sex, white blood cell, haemoglobin, platelet, C reactive protein (CRP) and D-dimer levels were most strongly associated with AKI and/or death. We created risk scores using these variables predicting AKI within 3 days and death within 30 days of a new COVID-19 diagnosis. Area under the curve (AUC) for predicting AKI within 3 days was 0.785 (95% CI 0.758 to 0.813) and AUC for death within 30 days was 0.861 (95% CI 0.843 to 0.878). Haemoglobin was the most predictive component for AKI, and age the most predictive for death. Predictive accuracies using all study variables were similar to using the simplified scores. Simple risk scores using age, sex, a complete blood cell count, CRP and D-dimer were highly predictive of AKI and death and can help simplify and better inform clinical decision making.
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