The effect of heat waves on mortality in susceptible groups: a cohort study of a mediterranean and a northern European City.
The effect of heat waves on mortality in susceptible groups: a cohort study of a mediterranean and a northern European City.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12940-015-0012-0
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发表时间：
2015-03-29
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Forsberg B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Oudin Åström D;Schifano P;Asta F;Lallo A;Michelozzi P;Rocklöv J;Forsberg B
气候变化预计将增加极端天气事件的数量和强度，例如热浪。热浪对健康有不利影响，特别是对老年人，因为老年人患慢性病的频率高于总人口。该研究的目的是调查2000年至2008年夏季期间罗马和斯德哥尔摩50岁或以上成年人以及该人群中易感亚组在热浪期间的死亡率。我们收集了每年5月15日至9月15日期间50岁以上人群以及易感亚组的每日死亡人数。热浪天数被定义为超过城市特定最高表观温度（MAT）第95百分位数的两天或更多天。热浪与全因非意外死亡率之间的关系是通过时间序列模型进行研究的，并根据时间趋势进行调整。与正常夏季相比，热浪期间每日死亡率的增加百分比在罗马的50岁以上人群中为22%（95%置信区间（CI）：18-26%），在斯德哥尔摩为8%（95% CI：3-12%）。在罗马，亚组特异性死亡率增加的范围从心肌梗死幸存者的7%（95% CI：-17-39%）到COPD（95% CI：9-43%）和糖尿病（95% CI：14-37%）亚组的25%。在斯德哥尔摩，范围为充血性心力衰竭的10%（95% CI：2-19%）至精神亚组的33%（95% CI：10-61%）。热浪期间死亡率在罗马和斯德哥尔摩的50岁以上人群以及所考虑的亚组中均增加。应评估保护措施是否应针对易感群体，而不是针对整个人口。本文的在线版本（doi：10.1186/s12940-015-0012-0）包含补充材料，可供授权用户使用。
Climate change is projected to increase the number and intensity of extreme weather events, for example heat waves. Heat waves have adverse health effects, especially for the elderly, since chronic diseases are more frequent in that group than in the population overall. The aim of the study was to investigate mortality during heat waves in an adult population aged 50 years or over, as well as in susceptible subgroups of that population in Rome and Stockholm during the summer periods from 2000 to 2008. We collected daily number of deaths occurring between 15th May and 15th September each year for the population above 50 as well as the susceptible subgroups. Heat wave days were defined as two or more days exceeding the city specific 95th percentile of maximum apparent temperature (MAT). The relationship between heat waves and all-cause non-accidental mortality was investigated through time series modelling, adjusting for time trends. The percent increase in daily mortality during heat waves as compared to normal summer days was, in the 50+ population, 22% (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 18-26%) in Rome and 8% (95% CI: 3-12%) in Stockholm. Subgroup specific increase in mortality in Rome ranged from 7% (95% CI:–17-39%) among survivors of myocardial infarction to 25% in the COPD (95% CI:9-43%) and diabetes (95% CI:14-37%) subgroups. In Stockholm the range was from 10% (95% CI: 2-19%) for congestive heart failure to 33% (95% CI: 10-61%) for the psychiatric subgroup. Mortality during heat waves increased in both Rome and Stockholm for the 50+ population as well as in the considered subgroups. It should be evaluated if protective measures should be directed towards susceptible groups, rather than the population as a whole. The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12940-015-0012-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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影响因子：
2.6
作者：
Rocklöv J;Forsberg B;Ebi K;Bellander T
通讯作者：
Bellander T
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Astrom, Daniel Oudin;Forsberg, Bertil;Rocklov, Joacim
通讯作者：
Rocklov, Joacim
DOI：
10.1164/rccm.200802-217oc
发表时间：
2009-03-01
影响因子：
24.7
作者：
Michelozzi, Paola;Accetta, Gabriele;Perucci, Carlo A.
通讯作者：
Perucci, Carlo A.
影响因子：
14.6
作者：
Kenny, Glen P.;Yardley, Jane;Jay, Ollie
通讯作者：
Jay, Ollie
影响因子：
8.3
作者：
Barnett, A. G.;Tong, S.;Clements, A. C. A.
通讯作者：
Clements, A. C. A.