The forgotten drought of 1765-1768: Reconstructing and re-evaluating historical droughts in the British and Irish Isles.
The forgotten drought of 1765-1768: Reconstructing and re-evaluating historical droughts in the British and Irish Isles.
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.6521
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发表时间：
2020-10
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jobbova E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Murphy C;Wilby RL;Matthews T;Horvath C;Crampsie A;Ludlow F;Noone S;Brannigan J;Hannaford J;McLeman R;Jobbova E
历史降水记录是水资源管理的基础，但降水观测通常最多跨越100-150年，早期记录存在相当大的不确定性。在这里，我们分析了一些全球最长的降水记录，为英格兰和威尔士，苏格兰和爱尔兰。为了评估这些记录的可信度，并将其进一步追溯到时间，我们统计重建（使用独立的预测）代表这些地区的1748-2000年期间的月降水量序列。通过将12个月累积的标准化降水指数（SPI-12）应用于观测和重建的系列，我们重新评估了历史气象干旱。我们发现，在1870年后的记录中，观测到的干旱年表和重建的干旱年表之间存在很强的一致性，但由于早期降水观测的偏差，早期系列存在分歧。因此，在我们的重建中，相对于观测，19世纪的十年不太容易发生干旱。总的来说，1834-1836年的干旱是英格兰和威尔士重建过程中最严重的SPI-12事件。报纸报道和文献资料证实了影响的程度，特别是在英格兰。我们还确定了1765年至1768年影响不列颠-爱尔兰群岛的一次重大的、“被遗忘的”干旱。这是我们对爱尔兰和苏格兰重建中最激烈的事件，在所有三个地区系列中累积赤字排名第一。此外，考虑到36个月的累积量，1765-1768年的事件也是所有区域系列中最极端的多年干旱（SPI-36）。报纸和其他消息来源证实了这场干旱的发生和重大的社会经济影响，例如像香农这样的主要河流可以步行。我们的研究结果为不列颠爱尔兰群岛的历史干旱提供了新的见解。考虑到历史干旱对水资源、干旱计划和供应系统恢复力的压力测试的重要性，1765-1768年被遗忘的干旱可能是250多年来最极端的基准情景。我们重建和重新评估了自1748年以来不列颠爱尔兰群岛（英格兰和威尔士，苏格兰和爱尔兰）的历史干旱，并确定了1765-1768年的一次重大的，“被遗忘的”干旱。我们表明，这一事件可能是该地区最极端的多年干旱。报纸和其他来源证实了这场干旱的发生和重大的社会经济影响，这可能是250多年来对干旱和水资源计划进行压力测试的最极端的基准情景。
Historical precipitation records are fundamental for the management of water resources, yet rainfall observations typically span 100–150 years at most, with considerable uncertainties surrounding earlier records. Here, we analyse some of the longest available precipitation records globally, for England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland. To assess the credibility of these records and extend them further back in time, we statistically reconstruct (using independent predictors) monthly precipitation series representing these regions for the period 1748–2000. By applying the Standardized Precipitation Index at 12‐month accumulations (SPI‐12) to the observed and our reconstructed series we re‐evaluate historical meteorological droughts. We find strong agreement between observed and reconstructed drought chronologies in post‐1870 records, but divergence in earlier series due to biases in early precipitation observations. Hence, the 1800s decade was less drought prone in our reconstructions relative to observations. Overall, the drought of 1834–1836 was the most intense SPI‐12 event in our reconstruction for England and Wales. Newspaper accounts and documentary sources confirm the extent of impacts across England in particular. We also identify a major, “forgotten” drought in 1765–1768 that affected the British‐Irish Isles. This was the most intense event in our reconstructions for Ireland and Scotland, and ranks first for accumulated deficits across all three regional series. Moreover, the 1765–1768 event was also the most extreme multi‐year drought across all regional series when considering 36‐month accumulations (SPI‐36). Newspaper and other sources confirm the occurrence and major socio‐economic impact of this drought, such as major rivers like the Shannon being fordable by foot. Our results provide new insights into historical droughts across the British Irish Isles. Given the importance of historical droughts for stress‐testing the resilience of water resources, drought plans and supply systems, the forgotten drought of 1765–1768 offers perhaps the most extreme benchmark scenario in more than 250‐years. We reconstruct and re‐evaluate historical droughts across the British Irish Isles (England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland) since 1748 and identify a major, “forgotten” drought in 1765–1768. We show that the event was likely the most extreme multi‐year drought across the region. Newspaper and other sources confirm the occurrence and major socio‐economic impact of this drought, which offers perhaps the most extreme benchmark scenario in more than 250‐years for stress‐testing drought and water resource plans.
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.2349
发表时间：
2012-06-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Cornes, Richard C.;Jones, Phil D.;Osborn, Timothy J.
通讯作者：
Osborn, Timothy J.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.846
发表时间：
2002-11-15
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lloyd-Hughes, B;Saunders, MA
通讯作者：
Saunders, MA
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Cooper, Richard J.;Melvin, Thomas M.;Briffa, Keith R.
通讯作者：
Briffa, Keith R.
影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Falzoi, Simone;Gleeson, Emily;Fratianni, Simona
通讯作者：
Fratianni, Simona
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Folland, C. K.;Hannaford, J.;Wallace, E.
通讯作者：
Wallace, E.